339
FXUS64 KLZK 130707
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
207 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
-A DOMINANT UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL POSITION OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH
MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
-AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDDLE
TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
ARKANSAS; HOWEVER, MODEL AGREEMENT IS LACKING AND THE CONFIDENCE
OF THIS EVENT OCCURRING REMAINS LOW.
-A LOW-END CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS, SPECIFICALLY
NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TOTAL RAINFALL IN ANY SHOWER THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BE LOW AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
-EXPECT THE WORSENING OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PERSISTING OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS DESPITE THE OUTSIDE LOWER END CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SATURDAY (TODAY) THROUGH TUESDAY:
A REGION OF UPPER LVL RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE DURATION
OF THE WEEKEND TRANSITIONING FROM BEING CENTRALIZED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS TO BECOMING CENTRALIZED OVER
ARKANSAS AND THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF THE CONUS. IN RESPONSE, HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE. A VERY
LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS DOES EXIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING;
HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND IF YOU DO HAPPEN TO
FIND YOURSELF UNDER ONE OF THESE SHOWERS, IT WILL ONLY BE ENOUGH
RAINFALL TO MAYBE KNOCK THE DUST DOWN.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMPARED
TO NORMALS FOR MID-SEPTEMBER OVER THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
AN UPPER LVL TROF WILL DIG OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION OF THE
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE RIDGE WILL BECOME ELONGATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN REGION OF THE CONUS AND THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS. MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT: THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LVL TROF TO APPROACH
THE REGION, BUT BOTH MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH ANY COHESION WITH
REGARDS TO INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THIS UPPER LVL TROF. THE GFS
SOLUTION PORTRAYS AN UPPER LVL TROF THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
AND MEANDER IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF ARKANSAS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION PORTRAYS A MUCH DRIER
SOLUTION AS THE UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND THE TROF
AXIS REMAINS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ARKANSAS; IN HINDSIGHT, THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP ARKANSAS DRY OVERALL.
SIMPLY PUT, THE TIMING AND LIKELIHOOD OF POPS IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DOES LOOK TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE AND LATE TIMEFRAME OF NEXT WEEK. I HAVE WENT CLOSER TO THE
GFS SOLUTION, BUT HAVE KEPT POPS RESPECTABLE AT A 20%-40% RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES AND THE INFLUX OF MORE MODEL DATA SHOULD
ASSIST IN REFINING THIS LACK OF COHESION AND LOW CONFIDENCE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. IT IS A POSITIVE TO SEE POP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST, BUT I DON'T SEE THIS AS AN EVENT TO HANG YOUR HAT ON JUST
YET GIVEN THE LACK OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMPARED
TO NORMALS FOR MID-SEPTEMBER OVER THIS PERIOD.
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO A DRY AND HOT
PATTERN OVERALL WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE STATE. ANTICIPATE GRASSFIRE AND WILDFIRE DANGER TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
THE TERMINALS OF KLIT, KHOT, AND KADF WILL SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG TO
BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD WHICH WILL DROP VSBY TO MVFR FLIGHT
CATEGORY, THIS HAS BEEN REPRESENTED BY TEMPO GROUPS. THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS OF KHRO AND KBPK HAVE HAD THEIR TAF TO INCLUDE VCSH ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
THAT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS. ALL TERMINALS
WILL RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BY LATER SATURDAY MORNING AND
REMAIN VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 97 68 97 68 / 20 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 96 67 94 66 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 93 68 93 68 / 20 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 96 69 94 68 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 95 70 93 70 / 10 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 97 68 96 69 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 95 68 93 67 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 97 68 96 68 / 20 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 96 69 96 70 / 20 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 96 68 94 68 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 97 70 95 70 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 96 68 95 67 / 20 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 96 69 94 69 / 10 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page