429
FXUS64 KLZK 131739
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1239 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
-A DOMINANT UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL POSITION OVER ARKANSAS THROUGH
MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
-AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MIDDLE
TO LATE NEXT WEEK AND BRING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
ARKANSAS; HOWEVER, MODEL AGREEMENT IS LACKING AND THE CONFIDENCE
OF THIS EVENT OCCURRING REMAINS LOW.
-A LOW-END CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS, SPECIFICALLY
NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS. TOTAL RAINFALL IN ANY SHOWER THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BE LOW AND NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH.
-EXPECT THE WORSENING OF DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE A HIGH CONFIDENCE OF PERSISTING OVER THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS DESPITE THE OUTSIDE LOWER END CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SATURDAY (TODAY) THROUGH TUESDAY:
A REGION OF UPPER LVL RIDGING WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE DURATION
OF THE WEEKEND TRANSITIONING FROM BEING CENTRALIZED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS TO BECOMING CENTRALIZED OVER
ARKANSAS AND THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF THE CONUS. IN RESPONSE, HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE. A VERY
LOW CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS DOES EXIST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING;
HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND IF YOU DO HAPPEN TO
FIND YOURSELF UNDER ONE OF THESE SHOWERS, IT WILL ONLY BE ENOUGH
RAINFALL TO MAYBE KNOCK THE DUST DOWN.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMPARED
TO NORMALS FOR MID-SEPTEMBER OVER THIS PERIOD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
AN UPPER LVL TROF WILL DIG OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION OF THE
CONUS ON WEDNESDAY AND THE RIDGE WILL BECOME ELONGATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN REGION OF THE CONUS AND THE CENTER OF THIS RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE BACK OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS. MODEL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT: THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SHOW THE POTENTIAL OF THIS AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LVL TROF TO APPROACH
THE REGION, BUT BOTH MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH ANY COHESION WITH
REGARDS TO INTENSITY AND PLACEMENT OF THIS UPPER LVL TROF. THE GFS
SOLUTION PORTRAYS AN UPPER LVL TROF THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
AND MEANDER IN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF ARKANSAS BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY
AND LASTING INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE ECMWF SOLUTION PORTRAYS A MUCH DRIER
SOLUTION AS THE UPPER LVL RIDGE REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND THE TROF
AXIS REMAINS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ARKANSAS; IN HINDSIGHT, THIS
SOLUTION WOULD KEEP ARKANSAS DRY OVERALL.
SIMPLY PUT, THE TIMING AND LIKELIHOOD OF POPS IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS DOES LOOK TO BE A LOW CONFIDENCE EVENT GOING INTO THE
MIDDLE AND LATE TIMEFRAME OF NEXT WEEK. I HAVE WENT CLOSER TO THE
GFS SOLUTION, BUT HAVE KEPT POPS RESPECTABLE AT A 20%-40% RANGE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES AND THE INFLUX OF MORE MODEL DATA SHOULD
ASSIST IN REFINING THIS LACK OF COHESION AND LOW CONFIDENCE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. IT IS A POSITIVE TO SEE POP CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST, BUT I DON'T SEE THIS AS AN EVENT TO HANG YOUR HAT ON JUST
YET GIVEN THE LACK OF AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE COMPARED
TO NORMALS FOR MID-SEPTEMBER OVER THIS PERIOD.
THE UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO A DRY AND HOT
PATTERN OVERALL WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE STATE. ANTICIPATE GRASSFIRE AND WILDFIRE DANGER TO
CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD LEADING TO
VFR CONDITIONS. SOME VCSH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS IS NOT HIGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 68 96 68 95 / 10 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 67 94 66 94 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 68 92 68 92 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 69 94 69 95 / 0 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 71 93 70 94 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 68 96 69 97 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 67 94 68 94 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 96 67 95 / 10 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 70 95 70 96 / 10 0 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 68 95 69 95 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 70 96 70 96 / 0 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 68 95 69 96 / 0 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 69 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...73
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