458
FXUS64 KLZK 030417
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1117 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
-RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, INCLUDING A FEW ISOLATED STORMS.
-SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH AREA HIGH READINGS GENERALLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
-MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR POSSIBLE BY MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATED H500 RIDGING ACRS THE CNTRL US TO THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOTED
FM THE NERN US, EXTENDING SWWRD THRU THE APPALACHIANS, W/ MUCH OF
THE SRN CNTRL US ALONG THE SWRN PERIPHERY OF THIS SFC HIGH.
ANOTHER UNEVENTFUL AND WARM DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE NATURAL STATE ON
THURS, W/ SOME HIGHER CHC POPS NOTED OVER NRN AR THURS AFTN IN THE
FORM OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
OTHERWISE, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER AND LOWER LVL FEATURES WL CONT
TO DRIVE THE LOCAL FCST AS >90TH PERCENTILE H500 HEIGHTS AND ASCTD
COLUMN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STATIONARY OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE US
THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM GUIDANCE, INCLUDING DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE PROGS,
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE AFOREMENTIONED H500 RIDGE WL BEGIN TO
DEAMPLIFY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, W/ THE PRIMARY CLOSED HIGH SHIFTING
SWRD TOWARDS THE SRN US AND GULF COAST, AND MEAN ZONAL FLOW W/
PASSING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS PREVAILING ACRS THE CONUS. W/ THIS
PATTERN CHANGE, POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED ACRS THE SRN
CNTRL US, WHICH WL AID IN INCRSG RAIN CHANCES AHEAD OF AN APRCHG
FRNT.
NEAR THE END OF THE PD THRU THE TUES-WED TIMEFRAME, AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE EWRD ACRS THE NRN CNTRL US/CANADA
BORDER REGION. AT THE SFC, THIS SHORTWAVE WL HELP TO DRIVE A STRONG
CDFRNT THRU THE CNTRL GREAT PLAINS, BUT SOME UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN ON
TIMING AND MAGNITUDE OF UPPER LEVEL AND SFC FEATURES. FOR NOW,
BLENDED BASE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE SOLNS SUGGEST INCRSG POPS AHEAD
OF AND ALONG THE APRCHG FRNT MON THRU WED, W/ POTENTIALLY COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS PREVAILING BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK IF THE FRNT
REACHES AND CLEARS THE FA TO THE SOUTH.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2025
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FROM EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS
TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING RE-
ESTABLISHED OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST TERMINALS
BESIDES KLLQ WHICH WILL EXPERIENCE SURFACE WINDS BECOME ESTABLISHED
OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST LATER FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 88 61 88 58 / 20 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 91 62 87 58 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 85 60 85 58 / 20 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 89 62 87 58 / 10 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 88 63 86 60 / 10 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 91 63 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 92 62 87 58 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 87 61 87 58 / 20 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 90 62 88 60 / 10 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 91 62 87 58 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 92 63 88 60 / 20 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 89 61 88 58 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 89 63 87 59 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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