093
FXUS64 KLZK 032228
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
528 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
-SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH AREA HIGH READINGS GENERALLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
-MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR POSSIBLE BY MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
-COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID TO LATE
WEEK NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
H500 RIDGING WAS NOTED ACRS MUCH OF THE CNTRL US W/ AMPLIFIED
TROUGHING MOVING ACRS THE WRN US. LOCALLY, ERN US SFC PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE FCST, W/ DRY AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS
PREVAILING THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
THRU THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE
REMAINS INDICATIVE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED H500 RIDGE DEAMPLIFYING AND
SHIFTING SWRD OVER THE SRN CNTRL US, W/ GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW AND
PASSING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS PREVAILING ACRS THE CONUS.
INCRSG SFC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACRS THE REGION BY MON, AND WL AID
IN INCRSG RAIN CHANCES THRU THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF AN
APRCHG CDFRNT. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THIS FRNT WL
MOVE ACRS THE OZARK PLATEAU DURING THE TUES-WED TIMEFRAME, DRIVING
MORE WIDESPREAD, BUT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FA.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRNT, WHICH LOOKS TO SHIFT TOWARDS A "BACK-DOOR"
FRNT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES, NERLY SFC
WINDS WL PREVAIL, USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE
NATURAL STATE THRU THE END OF THE PD, W/ SETTLED WX CONDNS
RESUMING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD OF FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP FAIR AND TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 58 86 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 58 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 10
HARRISON AR 58 82 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 59 84 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 60 85 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 60 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 58 85 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 59 84 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 60 87 59 88 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 59 87 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 60 85 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 58 87 58 88 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 60 86 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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