355
FXUS64 KLZK 040619
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
119 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
-SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH AREA HIGH READINGS GENERALLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
-MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR POSSIBLE BY MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
-COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
H500 RIDGING WAS NOTED ACRS MUCH OF THE CNTRL US TO ERN US W/
AMPLIFIED TROUGHING CONTINUING TO MOVE ACRS THE WRN US. LOCALLY,
ERN US SFC PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE FCST, W/ DRY AND
WARM TEMPS PERSISTING THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE FCST, W/ GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATIVE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED H500 RIDGE WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING SWRD OVER THE SRN CNTRL US EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW W/ PASSING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS
PREVAILING ACRS THE CONUS.
SFC MOISTURE WL BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE SRN CNTRL US ON MON,
AND WL AID IN INCRSG RAIN CHANCES THRU THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN APRCHG CDFRNT. THIS CDFRNT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OZARK
PLATEAU REGION DURING THE TUES-WED TIMEFRAME, DRIVEN BY BROAD
GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH PRESSURE, AND INFLUENCE MORE WIDESPREAD POPS
OVER THE FA.
IN THE WAKE OF THE CDFRNT, WHICH WL SHIFT TOWARDS A "BACK-DOOR"
STYLE FRNT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NERN US, NERLY SFC WINDS WL PREVAIL, USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR OVER THE NATURAL STATE THRU THE END OF THE PD, W/ SETTLED WX
CONDNS RESUMING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO KEEP FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
THE FORECAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 86 58 87 64 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 86 60 86 66 / 0 0 10 10
HARRISON AR 81 59 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 85 61 86 66 / 0 0 0 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 85 62 86 67 / 0 0 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 89 63 88 69 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 85 61 87 65 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 83 59 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 86 60 88 66 / 0 0 0 10
PINE BLUFF AR 87 61 88 67 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 85 62 87 66 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 86 59 88 66 / 0 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 86 62 88 68 / 0 0 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...74
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