215
FXUS64 KLZK 041705
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1205 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
-SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH AREA HIGH READINGS GENERALLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
-MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR POSSIBLE BY MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
-COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
H500 RIDGING WAS NOTED ACRS MUCH OF THE CNTRL US TO ERN US W/
AMPLIFIED TROUGHING CONTINUING TO MOVE ACRS THE WRN US. LOCALLY,
ERN US SFC PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE FCST, W/ DRY AND
WARM TEMPS PERSISTING THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE FCST, W/ GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATIVE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED H500 RIDGE WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING SWRD OVER THE SRN CNTRL US EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW W/ PASSING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS
PREVAILING ACRS THE CONUS.
SFC MOISTURE WL BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE SRN CNTRL US ON MON,
AND WL AID IN INCRSG RAIN CHANCES THRU THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN APRCHG CDFRNT. THIS CDFRNT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OZARK
PLATEAU REGION DURING THE TUES-WED TIMEFRAME, DRIVEN BY BROAD
GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH PRESSURE, AND INFLUENCE MORE WIDESPREAD POPS
OVER THE FA.
IN THE WAKE OF THE CDFRNT, WHICH WL SHIFT TOWARDS A "BACK-DOOR"
STYLE FRNT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NERN US, NERLY SFC WINDS WL PREVAIL, USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR OVER THE NATURAL STATE THRU THE END OF THE PD, W/ SETTLED WX
CONDNS RESUMING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
EAST THROUGH PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 58 87 64 82 / 0 10 10 40
CAMDEN AR 60 86 66 85 / 0 10 10 30
HARRISON AR 59 84 61 81 / 0 0 0 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 61 86 66 84 / 0 10 10 30
LITTLE ROCK AR 62 86 67 82 / 0 10 10 30
MONTICELLO AR 63 88 69 86 / 0 10 10 40
MOUNT IDA AR 61 87 65 84 / 0 0 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 59 86 63 83 / 0 0 0 20
NEWPORT AR 60 88 66 84 / 0 10 10 40
PINE BLUFF AR 61 88 67 85 / 0 10 10 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 62 87 66 84 / 0 0 0 20
SEARCY AR 59 88 66 83 / 0 10 10 40
STUTTGART AR 62 88 68 84 / 0 10 10 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...73
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