337
FXUS64 KLZK 050429
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1129 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT FRI OCT 3 2025
-SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH AREA HIGH READINGS GENERALLY 5 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
-MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES APPEAR POSSIBLE BY MID-
WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS.
-COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
H500 RIDGING WAS NOTED ACRS MUCH OF THE CNTRL US TO ERN US W/
AMPLIFIED TROUGHING CONTINUING TO MOVE ACRS THE WRN US. LOCALLY,
ERN US SFC PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE FCST, W/ DRY AND
WARM TEMPS PERSISTING THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED REGARDING THE FCST, W/ GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATIVE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED H500 RIDGE WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING SWRD OVER THE SRN CNTRL US EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW W/ PASSING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROFS
PREVAILING ACRS THE CONUS.
SFC MOISTURE WL BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE SRN CNTRL US ON MON,
AND WL AID IN INCRSG RAIN CHANCES THRU THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF AN APRCHG CDFRNT. THIS CDFRNT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE OZARK
PLATEAU REGION DURING THE TUES-WED TIMEFRAME, DRIVEN BY BROAD
GREAT LAKES SFC HIGH PRESSURE, AND INFLUENCE MORE WIDESPREAD POPS
OVER THE FA.
IN THE WAKE OF THE CDFRNT, WHICH WL SHIFT TOWARDS A "BACK-DOOR"
STYLE FRNT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NERN US, NERLY SFC WINDS WL PREVAIL, USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER
AIR OVER THE NATURAL STATE THRU THE END OF THE PD, W/ SETTLED WX
CONDNS RESUMING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SAT OCT 4 2025
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR ALL TERMINALS FOR THE ENTIRE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 83 58 87 65 / 0 0 0 20
CAMDEN AR 86 60 87 67 / 0 0 10 20
HARRISON AR 80 58 83 61 / 0 0 0 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 82 61 86 66 / 0 0 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 84 61 86 69 / 0 0 10 20
MONTICELLO AR 86 63 88 69 / 0 0 10 30
MOUNT IDA AR 86 60 86 65 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 82 58 85 64 / 0 0 0 10
NEWPORT AR 84 59 88 68 / 0 0 0 20
PINE BLUFF AR 86 61 87 68 / 0 0 10 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 84 61 87 66 / 0 0 0 10
SEARCY AR 83 58 88 66 / 0 0 10 30
STUTTGART AR 84 61 87 69 / 0 0 10 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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