713
FXUS64 KLZK 051142 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
642 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
-WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
-MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE STATE
WILL RETURN THROUGH THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.
-A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY,
TAPERING OFF RAIN CHANCES AND USHERING IN COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS, WITH SETTLED WEATHER RESUMING THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTED A PROMINENT COSINE WAVE H500 FLOW
PATTERN, W/ BROAD TROUGHING ACRS THE CONT DIVIDE, AND RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO NERN US. SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD
BEEN ROOTED OVER THE ERN US WAS ALSO NOTED MOVING EWRD INTO
ATLANTIC, W/ A FETCH OF SRLY TO SERLY SFC FLOW POSITIONED OVER THE
SRN CNTRL US.
THRU THE DAY TODAY AND INTO MON, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WL BEGIN TO
DEAMPLIFY, W/ WRN US TROUGHING ELONGATING AND TRANSITIONING FM A
NEUTRAL TO LARGELY POSITIVE TILT, EXTENDING FM THE CONT DIVIDE TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. AS H500 SWRLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE CNTRL US, LOW-LVL WAA AND POLEWARD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WL ENSUE ACRS THE SRN CNTRL US, W/ DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S QUICKLY ADVANCING TO AT LEAST THE PERIPHERY OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU BY MON AFTN.
A SFC PRESSURE COL IS PROGGED TO SET UP FM SW TO NE, EXTENDING FM
THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION TO THE UPPER MIDWEST, AS A SURGE OF
CONTINENTAL SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWRD THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS, AND
COLLIDES W/ LINGERING ATLANTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE. THIS COL FEATURE,
OR INVERTED SFC PRESSURE TROF, DEPENDING ON THE FRAME OF REFERENCE,
WL LKLY RESULT IN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED QPF DURING THE MON TO TUES
TIMEFRAME, AND AS OF NOW, IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE WELL NORTH OF THE
FA.
HOWEVER, HIGHER CHC POPS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF THE FA
BEGINNING ON MON DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
ASCTD INCRSG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GREATER CONFIDENCE OF HIGHER QPF
CURRENTLY LIES ACRS THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE ON MON, AND
PARTICULARLY NERN AR, WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR MOST W/
POTENTIAL DROUGHT RELIEF ON THE WAY.
RAIN CHCS WL CONTINUE THRU TUES OVER MUCH OF THE FA, W/ THE CNTRL
PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT AND MOVING FURTHER
SWRD AS IT GAINS MORE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FM A PIVOTING VORTICITY
MAX EMBEDDED W/IN THE MEAN FLOW. TUES NIGHT AND INTO WED, A CDFRNT
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL ADVANCE SWRD
INTO THE OZARKS, AND THEN SHIFT EWRD, W/ THE GREAT LAKES ONCE AGAIN
UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRNT, WHICH LOOKS TO SHIFT TOWARDS A "BACK-DOOR"
FRNT SIGNAL AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE EAST, NERLY SFC
WINDS WL PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK, USHERING IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE NATURAL STATE AND SETTLED WX CONDNS
PREVAILING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025
NO SIG CHANGES TO NOTE IN THE NEW TAF PD...EXPECT VFR CONDNS ACRS
THE FA THRU MUCH OF THE PD. E-SERLY WINDS WL PREVAIL THRU THE
DAY, W/ INCRSG MID LVL CLOUD COVER ACRS THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE.
LATE IN THE PD, NEAR 12Z MON MRNG, LOWER CLOUD COVER WL BE INCRSG
ACRS SERN AR, BUT HAVE WITHHELD MENTIONS OF MVFR CIGS FOR NOW...
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 87 64 79 65 / 0 20 60 50
CAMDEN AR 86 67 81 67 / 10 20 60 30
HARRISON AR 83 61 80 63 / 0 10 40 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 66 81 67 / 10 20 50 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 86 68 79 68 / 10 20 50 50
MONTICELLO AR 88 69 83 69 / 10 30 60 40
MOUNT IDA AR 86 65 81 66 / 10 10 40 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 85 63 81 65 / 0 10 40 30
NEWPORT AR 88 67 79 68 / 0 20 60 60
PINE BLUFF AR 88 68 82 67 / 10 20 50 40
RUSSELLVILLE AR 86 66 83 67 / 0 10 40 30
SEARCY AR 88 67 79 67 / 10 30 60 50
STUTTGART AR 88 69 81 69 / 10 30 50 50
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...72
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