139  
FXUS64 KLZK 052320 AAA  
AFDLZK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
620 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025  
 
-WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.  
 
-MORE ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE STATE  
WILL RETURN THROUGH THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.  
 
-A COLD FRONT IS SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY,  
TAPERING OFF RAIN CHANCES AND USHERING IN COOLER AND MORE  
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS, WITH SETTLED WEATHER RESUMING THROUGH THE  
END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025  
 
LATEST MESOANALYSIS DEPICTED A PROMINENT COSINE WAVE H500 FLOW  
PATTERN, W/ BROAD TROUGHING ACRS THE CONT DIVIDE, AND RIDGING  
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO NERN US. SFC HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD  
BEEN ROOTED OVER THE ERN US WAS ALSO NOTED MOVING EWRD INTO  
ATLANTIC, W/ A FETCH OF SRLY TO SERLY SFC FLOW POSITIONED OVER THE  
SRN CNTRL US.  
 
THRU THE DAY TODAY AND INTO MON, THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WL BEGIN TO  
DEAMPLIFY, W/ WRN US TROUGHING ELONGATING AND TRANSITIONING FM A  
NEUTRAL TO LARGELY POSITIVE TILT, EXTENDING FM THE CONT DIVIDE TO  
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. AS H500 SWRLY FLOW  
OVERSPREADS THE CNTRL US, LOW-LVL WAA AND POLEWARD MOISTURE  
TRANSPORT WL ENSUE ACRS THE SRN CNTRL US, W/ DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 60S QUICKLY ADVANCING TO AT LEAST THE PERIPHERY OF THE OZARK  
PLATEAU BY MON AFTN.  
 
A SFC PRESSURE COL IS PROGGED TO SET UP FM SW TO NE, EXTENDING FM  
THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION TO THE UPPER MIDWEST, AS A SURGE OF  
CONTINENTAL SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SWRD THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS, AND  
COLLIDES W/ LINGERING ATLANTIC SFC HIGH PRESSURE. THIS COL FEATURE,  
OR INVERTED SFC PRESSURE TROF, DEPENDING ON THE FRAME OF REFERENCE,  
WL LKLY RESULT IN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED QPF DURING THE MON TO TUES  
TIMEFRAME, AND AS OF NOW, IS EXPECTED TO RESIDE WELL NORTH OF THE  
FA.  
 
HOWEVER, HIGHER CHC POPS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF THE FA  
BEGINNING ON MON DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND  
ASCTD INCRSG MOISTURE TRANSPORT. GREATER CONFIDENCE OF HIGHER QPF  
CURRENTLY LIES ACRS THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE ON MON, AND  
PARTICULARLY NERN AR, WHICH SHOULD BE GOOD NEWS FOR MOST W/  
POTENTIAL DROUGHT RELIEF ON THE WAY.  
 
RAIN CHCS WL CONTINUE THRU TUES OVER MUCH OF THE FA, W/ THE CNTRL  
PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EVENTUALLY WINNING OUT AND MOVING FURTHER  
SWRD AS IT GAINS MORE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FM A PIVOTING VORTICITY  
MAX EMBEDDED W/IN THE MEAN FLOW. TUES NIGHT AND INTO WED, A CDFRNT  
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL ADVANCE SWRD  
INTO THE OZARKS, AND THEN SHIFT EWRD, W/ THE GREAT LAKES ONCE AGAIN  
UNDER BROAD HIGH PRESSURE.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRNT, WHICH LOOKS TO SHIFT TOWARDS A "BACK-DOOR"  
FRNT SIGNAL AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES TO THE EAST, NERLY SFC  
WINDS WL PREVAIL THRU AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK, USHERING IN  
COOLER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE NATURAL STATE AND SETTLED WX CONDNS  
PREVAILING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SUN OCT 5 2025  
 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DOMINANT THIS EVENING INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT HRS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT  
INTO MON...WITH SOME CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA INCREASING INTO THE  
DAYTIME HRS MON. BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS  
THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE...MAINLY SCATTERED IN NATURE. SOME MVFR  
CONDITIONS COULD BE SEEN...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE MORE INTENSE  
ACTIVITY.  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
BATESVILLE AR 65 78 65 81 / 20 60 60 50  
CAMDEN AR 67 80 67 83 / 30 70 40 50  
HARRISON AR 62 78 64 79 / 10 40 30 30  
HOT SPRINGS AR 66 79 67 83 / 20 50 40 40  
LITTLE ROCK AR 68 79 69 81 / 20 60 60 50  
MONTICELLO AR 70 83 69 85 / 30 70 50 50  
MOUNT IDA AR 65 80 66 84 / 10 50 30 40  
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 64 80 65 81 / 10 40 40 30  
NEWPORT AR 68 79 69 81 / 30 70 70 60  
PINE BLUFF AR 69 81 68 83 / 20 60 50 50  
RUSSELLVILLE AR 67 82 67 85 / 10 40 30 30  
SEARCY AR 67 80 67 81 / 30 60 70 60  
STUTTGART AR 70 81 69 81 / 30 60 60 50  
 

 
   
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...72  
AVIATION...62  
 
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