225
FXUS64 KLZK 061718 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1218 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
-SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
TODAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
-SOME LOCALLY GREATER RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES (OR
MORE) APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN TO NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS MONDAY
NIGHT, AND SOME LOCAL FLASH FLOODING ISSUES COULD ARISE.
-COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID TO LATE
WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SETTLED
WEATHER PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
LATEST MESOANALYSIS EARLY MON MRNG DEPICTED BROAD, AND HIGHLY
POSITIVELY TILTED H500 TROUGHING EXTENDING ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS,
W/ RIDGING RESIDING OVER THE ERN AND NERN US COASTLINE. AT THE SFC,
INVERTED SFC PRESSURE TROUGHING WAS NOTED, EXTENDING SW TO NE FM THE
OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION, TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST. DTD/DT ANALYSES
AND CURRENT SFC OBS SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO THE MID
60S ACRS SRN AR, AND INCRSG MOISTURE TRENDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
DAY TODAY AS LOW LEVEL SRLY TO SERLY FLOW AND ASCTD WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT CONTINUES.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED, COVG OF PRECIPITATION, MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCRS ACRS SERN TO
ERN AR LATER MON MRNG, AND CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACRS THE ERN HALF OF
THE STATE THRU THIS AFTN. AS OF THE 06/00Z SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE, QPF
PROGS HAVE INCREASED ACRS THE ERN HALF OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTIES
STILL REMAIN FOR NOW, AND THE APPROXIMATE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
QPF FOOTPRINT MAY DEPEND ON WHERE A MODEST H850 LLJ DEVELOPS ACRS
THE MID-SOUTH LATER MON EVNG. CURRENTLY, BASE-BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A BROAD FOOTPRINT OF UP TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL OVER MUCH
OF ERN TO NERN AR, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS. HREF/REFS 90TH
PERCENTILE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BROADER QPF FOOTPRINT OF AT LEAST TWO
INCHES OVER THE SAME REGION, W/ EMBEDDED MAXES IN EXCESS OF THREE
INCHES POSSIBLE, AND THIS COULD CERTAINLY BE ATTAINABLE GIVEN THE
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE.
GIVEN THAT MUCH OF ERN TO NERN AR REMAINS IN LOW TO MODERATE DROUGHT
CONDNS, THE IMPACT OF ANY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY BE SOMEWHAT
MITIGATED DUE TO A HIGHER TOLERANCE AND NECESSITY OF RAINFALL, BUT
SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD STILL ARISE WHERE AND IF TRAINING
BECOMES THE MOST PROBLEMATIC, AND IF RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPROACH SOME
OF THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC QPF OUTPUT, E.G., LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF FIVE TO SIX INCHES.
RAINFALL CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TUES AS A CDFRNT FM THE GREAT
PLAINS SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE STATE THRU THE DAY. COVG OF POPS SHOULD
TAPER OFF FM NW TO SE THRU TUES EVNG AS DRIER AIR AND BROAD SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CNTRL US.
BY WED, THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH PRESSURE WL BE SHIFTING EWRD
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN US, W/ THE FA RESIDING ON THE SWRN
PERIPHERY OF THE SFC HIGH. UNDER NERLY SFC WINDS, SETTLED WX CONDNS
WL PREVAIL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2025
FLIGHT CONDITIONS VARY FROM VFR TO IFR ACROSS THE AREA AS A
SURFACE LOW SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY NORTH ACROSS THE STATE. EASTERLY
WINDS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH RAIN ACROSS
MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOST TERMINALS EXPECTED TO SEE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE STATE
TUESDAY BRINGING NW WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 65 81 60 77 / 70 40 10 0
CAMDEN AR 67 84 65 79 / 20 30 10 10
HARRISON AR 63 79 57 74 / 20 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 83 64 78 / 30 30 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 68 81 64 77 / 60 30 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 68 85 66 80 / 40 40 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 66 85 63 80 / 20 20 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 65 81 58 76 / 30 20 10 0
NEWPORT AR 69 80 63 76 / 80 50 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 68 83 65 79 / 40 40 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 68 86 64 81 / 30 20 10 0
SEARCY AR 68 82 63 78 / 80 40 20 0
STUTTGART AR 70 82 65 78 / 70 40 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...72
AVIATION...67
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