398
FXUS64 KLZK 071106
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
606 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
-SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
TODAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
-ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE RESERVED AS THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM FELL MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
-THE GREATEST AREA FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS WHERE SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL TENTH TO
QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER INCH TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN A FEW
ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS WHERE THE HIGHEST ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
-COOLER AND MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY MID TO LATE
WEEK,IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
LATER TODAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, WITH SETTLED WEATHER
PREVAILING THEREAFTER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
AS OF 2 AM CDT, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS POSITIONED OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF THE CONUS.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT:
AN UPPER LVL BROAD, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION OF THE CONUS COMBINED WITH AN INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SFC WILL ADVECT MOIST SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO
ARKANSAS. THE MOISTURE INFLUX, COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
ASSIST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. A POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL HEAVY
RAINFALL DOES EXIST (SIMILAR TO SUNDAY) AS A MODEST 850 MB LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF THE CONUS. THE PRESENCE OF
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 850 MB LOW-LEVEL JET MAY LEAD TO A FEW
MAXIMA OR ENHANCED RAINFALL TOTALS THAT NEAR A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
WITH AN OUTLIER CHANCE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED 1 INCH
OF TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 8 DEGREES OVERALL
AS A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT THE DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL NOT BE
FELT AT THE SFC UNTIL WEDNESDAY ACROSS ARKANSAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FROPA WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER WHICH WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES OVERALL TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO
NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK. EXPECT PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVERALL. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION DOES
APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR THE STATE OF NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER THIS
FAR OUT MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVERALL AND COHESION BETWEEN MODELS
DOES NOT EXIST AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL BE OBSERVED FROM IFR TO LIFR AT MOST TERMINALS
DUE TO LOWERED CIGS AND SOME FG WHICH HAS LOWERED VSBY AS WELL WHICH
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE DEGRADATION OF FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL BE NOTED THROUGH
MID-DAY BEFORE CIGS LIFT LATER BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL SITES;
HOWEVER, LATE TUESDAY EVENING CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR AND
IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 84 59 77 50 / 20 30 0 0
CAMDEN AR 85 65 81 56 / 20 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 79 55 74 50 / 10 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 86 64 79 55 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 84 65 77 55 / 20 20 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 85 66 81 57 / 20 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 87 63 79 54 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 83 57 76 50 / 10 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 84 62 76 52 / 30 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 83 64 78 55 / 20 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 88 64 80 55 / 10 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 84 63 77 52 / 20 20 0 0
STUTTGART AR 82 64 77 55 / 20 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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