252  
FXUS64 KLZK 071742 AAA  
AFDLZK  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
1242 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025  
   
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025  
 
-A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE  
THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
-COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE SEEN IN THE COMING  
DAYS.  
 
-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025  
 
AS OF 2 AM CDT, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM THAT IS POSITIONED OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF THE CONUS.  
 
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT:  
 
AN UPPER LVL BROAD, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
REGION OF THE CONUS COMBINED WITH AN INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE  
AT THE SFC WILL ADVECT MOIST SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO  
ARKANSAS. THE MOISTURE INFLUX, COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL  
ASSIST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. A POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL HEAVY  
RAINFALL DOES EXIST (SIMILAR TO SUNDAY) AS A MODEST 850 MB LOW-LEVEL  
JET DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF THE CONUS. THE PRESENCE OF  
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 850 MB LOW-LEVEL JET MAY LEAD TO A FEW  
MAXIMA OR ENHANCED RAINFALL TOTALS THAT NEAR A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL  
WITH AN OUTLIER CHANCE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED 1 INCH  
OF TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS  
LOW.  
 
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 8 DEGREES OVERALL  
AS A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY FROM  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT THE DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL NOT BE  
FELT AT THE SFC UNTIL WEDNESDAY ACROSS ARKANSAS.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:  
 
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FROPA WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER WHICH WILL  
BRING TEMPERATURES OVERALL TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR  
ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT  
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO  
NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF THE WORK  
WEEK. EXPECT PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WITH FAIR WEATHER  
CONDITIONS OVERALL. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION DOES  
APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR THE STATE OF NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER THIS  
FAR OUT MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVERALL AND COHESION BETWEEN MODELS  
DOES NOT EXIST AT THE MOMENT.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025  
 
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 08/06Z BUT COVERAGE WILL  
REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT PRECIP  
WILL BE SEEN AT AREA TERMINALS. IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING  
SE ACROSS THE STATE, SFC WINDS WILL BECOME NW-NE THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 5-10 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH  
OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 15 KTS AT TIMES. CIGS WILL VARY, BUT WILL  
LARGELY BE BETWEEN MVFR/IFR THROUGH 08/18Z. THERE COULD BE A FEW  
TERMINALS THAT SEE FG DEVELOPMENT EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL.  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
BATESVILLE AR 61 77 50 75 / 20 0 0 0  
CAMDEN AR 65 81 56 78 / 10 10 0 0  
HARRISON AR 56 74 49 73 / 10 0 0 0  
HOT SPRINGS AR 65 78 55 77 / 10 10 0 0  
LITTLE ROCK AR 66 77 55 75 / 10 10 0 0  
MONTICELLO AR 66 82 57 78 / 10 10 0 0  
MOUNT IDA AR 63 79 54 78 / 10 10 0 0  
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 58 76 50 74 / 10 0 0 0  
NEWPORT AR 64 77 51 75 / 30 0 0 0  
PINE BLUFF AR 66 79 54 76 / 10 10 0 0  
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 80 55 79 / 10 10 0 0  
SEARCY AR 64 78 52 75 / 30 10 0 0  
STUTTGART AR 66 78 54 75 / 10 10 0 0  
 
 
   
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NONE.  
 
 
 
 
KEY MESSAGES...67  
DISCUSSION...74  
AVIATION...67  
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