169
FXUS64 KLZK 072247 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
547 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
-A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
-COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE SEEN IN THE COMING
DAYS.
-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
AS OF 2 AM CDT, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS POSITIONED OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF THE CONUS.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT:
AN UPPER LVL BROAD, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION OF THE CONUS COMBINED WITH AN INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SFC WILL ADVECT MOIST SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO
ARKANSAS. THE MOISTURE INFLUX, COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
ASSIST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. A POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL HEAVY
RAINFALL DOES EXIST (SIMILAR TO SUNDAY) AS A MODEST 850 MB LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF THE CONUS. THE PRESENCE OF
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 850 MB LOW-LEVEL JET MAY LEAD TO A FEW
MAXIMA OR ENHANCED RAINFALL TOTALS THAT NEAR A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
WITH AN OUTLIER CHANCE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED 1 INCH
OF TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 8 DEGREES OVERALL
AS A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT THE DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL NOT BE
FELT AT THE SFC UNTIL WEDNESDAY ACROSS ARKANSAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FROPA WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER WHICH WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES OVERALL TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO
NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK. EXPECT PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVERALL. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION DOES
APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR THE STATE OF NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER THIS
FAR OUT MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVERALL AND COHESION BETWEEN MODELS
DOES NOT EXIST AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 545 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE STATE...WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS NOTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
THIS TUE EVENING. EXPECT THIS POTENTIAL TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING ALONG THE FRONT...WITH VCSH MENTIONED FOR CENTRAL TO SRN
TERMINALS WITH THIS POTENTIAL. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
STATE OVERNIGHT INTO WED...WITH MAINLY JUST SOME LOW CIGS POSSIBLE
BEHIND THIS FRONT. EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATER IN THE TAF
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 61 77 50 75 / 20 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 65 81 56 78 / 10 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 56 74 49 73 / 10 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 65 78 55 77 / 10 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 66 77 55 75 / 10 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 66 82 57 78 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 63 79 54 78 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 58 76 50 74 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 64 77 51 75 / 30 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 66 79 54 76 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 64 80 55 79 / 10 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 64 78 52 75 / 30 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 66 78 54 75 / 10 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...62
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