127
FXUS64 KLZK 080500
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1200 AM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
-A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
-COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE SEEN IN THE COMING
DAYS.
-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
AS OF 2 AM CDT, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS POSITIONED OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF THE CONUS.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT:
AN UPPER LVL BROAD, POSITIVELY-TILTED TROF OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REGION OF THE CONUS COMBINED WITH AN INVERTED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SFC WILL ADVECT MOIST SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO
ARKANSAS. THE MOISTURE INFLUX, COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
ASSIST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ARKANSAS. A POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL HEAVY
RAINFALL DOES EXIST (SIMILAR TO SUNDAY) AS A MODEST 850 MB LOW-LEVEL
JET DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF THE CONUS. THE PRESENCE OF
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 850 MB LOW-LEVEL JET MAY LEAD TO A FEW
MAXIMA OR ENHANCED RAINFALL TOTALS THAT NEAR A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
WITH AN OUTLIER CHANCE A FEW LOCATIONS APPROACH AND/OR EXCEED 1 INCH
OF TOTAL RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 8 DEGREES OVERALL
AS A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, BUT THE DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL NOT BE
FELT AT THE SFC UNTIL WEDNESDAY ACROSS ARKANSAS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FROPA WILL BE COOLER AND DRIER WHICH WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES OVERALL TO AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL SHIFT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE CONUS WHICH WILL LEAD TO
NORTHEASTERLY SFC WINDS FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PORTION OF THE WORK
WEEK. EXPECT PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE WITH FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVERALL. THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION DOES
APPEAR TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR THE STATE OF NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER THIS
FAR OUT MODEL CONFIDENCE IS LOW OVERALL AND COHESION BETWEEN MODELS
DOES NOT EXIST AT THE MOMENT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2025
ALL SITES WILL BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IN VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY.
HOWEVER, LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS A LOWERED CLOUD DECK MOVES FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. THE MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN OUTLINED BY TEMPO
GROUPS AND BY FM GROUPS IN LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR
THEIR OCCURRENCE. ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY
AROUND MID-DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS AT THE
TERMINALS OF KPBF AND KLLQ ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UNTIL WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 85 62 77 50 / 20 20 0 0
CAMDEN AR 89 65 81 56 / 20 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 83 56 74 49 / 10 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 88 65 79 55 / 20 20 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 86 66 77 55 / 20 20 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 85 67 82 57 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 92 64 79 54 / 20 20 10 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 84 58 77 50 / 20 20 0 0
NEWPORT AR 82 65 77 51 / 20 20 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 87 66 79 54 / 20 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 90 64 80 55 / 20 20 0 0
SEARCY AR 85 65 78 52 / 20 20 0 0
STUTTGART AR 85 66 78 54 / 20 20 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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