243
FXUS64 KLZK 091729
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1229 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
-A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
-A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS OR THE ENTIRE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
-A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVERALL COMPARED TO NORMALS FOR MID-
OCTOBER.
-NO CONSIDERABLE CHANGES OF ANY SORT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE WILL
BEGIN WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE CONUS WILL LEAD
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS WHICH WILL USHER IN A
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE STATE. IN THE
UPPER LVLS, ELONGATED RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE CONUS EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
REGION OF THE CONUS, THIS INCLUDES OVER ARKANSAS WHICH WILL LEAD TO
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. EXPECT A PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE STATE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN ARKANSAS.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
ALLOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS.
IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERALL
AND BY BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. AN UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION OF THE CONUS AND NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW WILL BE NOTED OVER ARKANSAS WHICH WILL KEEP DRY AND WARMING
CONDITIONS PRESENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH OVERALL
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT OF A DRY NEXT SEVEN DAYS
ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE STATE THANKS TO EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF WEDNESDAYS COLD
FRONT. SKC SHOULD DOMINATE AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
E/NERLY BETWEEN 5-15KTS WITH SOME GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. WINDS
SHOULD RELAX OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED SKC CONDS INTO FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 47 79 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 50 80 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 49 78 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 51 80 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 52 78 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 52 81 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 50 81 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 48 78 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 47 78 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 49 80 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 52 80 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 48 79 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 50 79 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...70
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