439
FXUS64 KLZK 100438
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1138 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
-A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORKWEEK.
-A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS OR THE ENTIRE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
-A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL BE PRESENT FROM THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WORKWEEK. ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE OVERALL COMPARED TO NORMALS FOR MID-
OCTOBER.
-NO CONSIDERABLE CHANGES OF ANY SORT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE WILL
BEGIN WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION OF THE CONUS WILL LEAD
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS WHICH WILL USHER IN A
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE STATE. IN THE
UPPER LVLS, ELONGATED RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
REGION OF THE CONUS EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
REGION OF THE CONUS, THIS INCLUDES OVER ARKANSAS WHICH WILL LEAD TO
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. EXPECT A PERIOD OF TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
ACROSS THE STATE. LOW TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN ARKANSAS.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
ALLOW A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ARKANSAS.
IN RESPONSE, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERALL
AND BY BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORKWEEK WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. AN UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION OF THE CONUS AND NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW WILL BE NOTED OVER ARKANSAS WHICH WILL KEEP DRY AND WARMING
CONDITIONS PRESENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF DRY AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH OVERALL
WARMING TEMPERATURES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT OF A DRY NEXT SEVEN DAYS
ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH GRADUALLY WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE ENTIRE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 77 49 79 56 / 0 0 10 0
CAMDEN AR 80 51 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 74 51 78 57 / 0 0 10 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 78 52 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 76 53 78 58 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 80 53 81 56 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 80 52 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 76 49 78 56 / 0 0 20 10
NEWPORT AR 76 48 78 57 / 0 0 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 78 51 79 55 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 79 53 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 77 49 79 56 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 76 51 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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