223
FXUS64 KLZK 101731
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1231 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
-ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
-SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, DRY AND
SETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACRS NRN AR THIS
AFTN, A PERSISTENCE-STYLE FCST IS ON DECK FOR THE NATURAL STATE THRU
THE NEXT 5-7 DAYS AS UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE CNTRL US.
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTN, AN EMBEDDED VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO
MANEUVER THRU MEAN NWRLY H500 FLOW, AND MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF A
CLUSTER OR EVEN WEAK MCS ACRS PORTIONS OF MO, W/ PRECIP POSSIBLY
REACHING INTO NRN AR LATER THIS AFTN. HAVE INCLUDED HIGHER POP
MENTIONS, BUT QPF AND COVG OF PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE.
FOLLOWING TODAY, A MEAN PATTERN OF H500 RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
IN ACRS THE CNTRL US, W/ ASCTD SFC HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING OVER THE
ERN HALF OF THE US. THIS SHOULD PROMOTE PERSISTENCE CONDNS, W/ ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY AND SETTLED WEATHER CONDNS PREVAILING.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. VCSH/SHRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER
NRN SITES AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10
KTS. LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT MOST TERMINALS BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 57 83 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 55 83 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 58 82 57 83 / 10 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 58 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 60 82 59 84 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 57 84 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 57 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 57 83 57 84 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 59 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 57 83 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 60 86 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 57 84 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 58 82 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...70
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