081
FXUS64 KLZK 130710
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
210 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
-SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE COMING WORKWEEK, WITH DRY AND SETTLED CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVER THIS PERIOD.
-UNSETTLED WEATHER, INCLUDING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE WORKWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN BETWEEN EXACT TIMING, QPF, AND SEVERE
WEATHER POSSIBILITIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
THE MAIN DRIVER OF WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORKWEEK INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WILL BE UPPER LVL FEATURES. FIRST, FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE WORKWEEK (THROUGH THURSDAY), A DOMINANT UPPER LVL
RIDGE WILL BE FIXATED OVER ARKANSAS LEADING TO A PERIOD OF TRANQUIL
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER. HOWEVER, INTO THE LATE WORKWEEK AND
WEEKEND, AN UPPER LVL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
ARKANSAS WHICH WILL PRESENT A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
MONDAY (TODAY) THROUGH THURSDAY:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION
OF THE CONUS WHICH WILL ASSIST IN THE PROMOTION OF MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE. ADDITIONALLY, THIS SURFACE FEATURE
WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUED ADVECTION OF SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW INTO ARKANSAS PROMOTING A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS TO BE USHERED
INTO THE STATE. EXPECT TEMPERATURES OVERALL TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY
WARM FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AVERAGING ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL OVERALL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT IN THE UPPER LVLS IS FORECAST TO TAKE
PLACE BY LATE WORKWEEK. AN UPPER LVL TROF IS GOING TO DIG OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS AND WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
ACROSS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OF BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE IN COHESION IN THE PLACEMENT OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE STATE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BEGINNING SATURDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT
COMPLETING THE JOURNEY ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, SPECIFICS REMAIN TOO FAR IN ADVANCE TO NAIL DOWN WITH
RESPECT TO EXACT TIMING, RAINFALL TOTALS, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER.
EXPECT ON FRIDAY TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM BY 5 TO 10
DEGREES ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS A RETURN TO PREDOMINATELY SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL COMMENCE ADVECTING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE STATE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE DAYS IN WHICH NOTED TEMPERATURES
WILL LOWER DUE TO A COMBINATION OF RAIN-COOLED AIR, CLOUD COVER, AND
THE FROPA AS A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL FUNNEL IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
PROGRESS AWAY FROM THE STATE. IN UPCOMING FORECAST DISCUSSIONS AND
PACKAGES, SPECIFICS WILL BEGIN TO BE DISCUSSED AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER. IT DOES HEED MENTIONING THAT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE
STATE WILL EXPERIENCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY WHEN SIGNALS
THIS FAR OUT FROM MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW COHESION AND CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. NO DEGRADATION TO CIGS OR VSBY IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 86 59 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 86 58 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 83 61 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 88 61 86 60 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 85 62 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 88 59 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 88 60 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 85 61 84 58 / 0 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 86 61 85 58 / 0 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 86 59 85 58 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 88 63 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 86 61 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 85 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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