391
FXUS64 KLZK 271114
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
614 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
-PATCHY, DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS A
LARGE PORTION OF THE STATE THIS MORNING.
-THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WET WEATHER, CLOUD COVER, AND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
-FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A LARGER PORTION OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH MAY NEED FROST ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
CURRENTLY:
AS OF 2 AM CDT, LOCAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
PATCHY, DENSE FOG AS WELL AS EXTREMELY LOW CLOUDS IN MANY LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER, THIS PATCHY, DENSE FOG IS NOT MEETING
DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA OF A WIDESPREAD AREA OF A QUARTER-MILE
VISIBILITY OR LESS DUE TO FOG, THEREFORE NO ADVISORY IS IN PLACE AT
THIS POINT WRITING THIS, BUT AM CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
CLOSELY IF VISIBILITIES DECIDE TO PLUMMET.
MONDAY (TODAY) THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
TODAY WILL BE MARRED BY MOSTLY CLOUD SKIES, PATCHY FOR DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND A LOWERED CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE STATE. HOWEVER,
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY FROM TODAY AS THE PESKY UPPER LVL
CLOSED LOW WHICH PROVIDED UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
MOVE EAST OF THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF THE CONUS LATER TODAY.
INTO TUESDAY, A COMBINATION OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, A DIGGING
UPPER LVL TROF OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS COUPLED
WITH AN ASSOCIATED STEEP COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN AND A POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
ARKANSAS. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST
ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY AND PROVIDE INCREASED POP CHANCES FOR BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LATEST RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE EVENT ON
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE STATE WHERE AS MUCH AS 0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES
OF RAINFALL MAY FALL. A TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 0.25 TO 0.75 OF AN INCH
WILL COMMON ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
A POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE PRESENT IN WAKE OF THE FROPA AND IN
THE UPPER LVLS OVER ARKANSAS WILL BE A PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. AT THE SFC, A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS REGION OF THE CONUS CONTRIBUTION TO A MUCH COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS OVERALL. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MOST
NOTED WEATHER CONDITION OVER THIS TIMEFRAME WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES OVER THIS
PERIOD BEHIND THE FROPA WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER
TRANSITIONING INTO EARLY NOVEMBER TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT FROST ADVISORIES (TEMPERATURES
FALLING BETWEEN 33 TO 36 DEGREES) MAY BE WARRANTED ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS A FEW PORTIONS OF NORTHERN-CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH A
GREATER AREA EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE MOMENT REGARDING THESE
TEMPERATURES, BUT A STRONG SIGNAL EXISTS FOR THE POSSIBLE NEED OF
FROST ADVISORIES IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY MORNINGS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
EXPECT DEGRADED FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL BE LOWERED DUE TO
LOWERED CIGS AS LOW AS LIFR CATEGORY. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL BE
NOTED BRIEFLY MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE LOWERED CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE
BACK IN MONDAY EVENING AND LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORY TO IFR/LIFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 64 51 64 45 / 10 20 70 80
CAMDEN AR 69 53 69 46 / 0 10 80 40
HARRISON AR 61 50 60 40 / 0 20 80 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 68 53 66 44 / 0 20 80 40
LITTLE ROCK AR 66 54 64 47 / 0 10 70 60
MONTICELLO AR 70 54 71 48 / 10 0 70 60
MOUNT IDA AR 69 53 67 43 / 0 30 80 30
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 62 50 62 42 / 0 10 70 70
NEWPORT AR 64 54 64 47 / 10 10 60 80
PINE BLUFF AR 67 53 67 46 / 0 10 70 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 53 65 45 / 0 20 70 50
SEARCY AR 65 52 64 45 / 10 10 70 70
STUTTGART AR 66 55 66 47 / 10 10 70 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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