797
FXUS64 KLZK 281135
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
-THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD AND ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
-TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS
NORTH ACROSS ARKANSAS; WHEREAS, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
CAN EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO NEAR AN INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL.
-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WET WEATHER, CLOUD COVER, AND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
-WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE NEAR OR EXCEEDED IN A FEW SPOTS AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
COMMON WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY.
-FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA AND
ARKANSAS WHICH MAY BE WARRANTED FOR A FROST ADVISORY ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
TUESDAY (TODAY) THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION. AN UPPER LVL CLOSED LOW, WHICH BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
STATE ON SUNDAY HAS TRACKED EASTWARD OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF
THE CONUS. IN ITS WAKE, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT, COMBINED WITH
LINGERING UPPER LVL SUPPORT FROM THE DEPARTING TROF, WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED POP CHANCES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NATURAL STATE WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LVL TROF PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD, STRONG CAA WILL
COMMENCE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BEGIN FUNNELING INTO ARKANSAS. AT
THE SFC, THIS WILL BE NOTED WITH THE PRESENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPPER
OFF COMPLETELY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE WITH LATEST CAMS
SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WHICH MAY PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM
COMPLETELY EXITING THE STATE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A CLASSIC POST-FRONTAL PATTERN. IN THE UPPER LVLS,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER ARKANSAS. AT THE SFC, A
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. IN RESPONSE,
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED INTO THE STATE.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO BE NOTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE TRANSITION PERIOD OF LATE OCTOBER INTO EARLY
NOVEMBER.
A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, STRONG SURFACE WINDS MAY KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTACT OVERNIGHT AND HAMPER RADIATIONAL
COOLING. ALTHOUGH INTO FRIDAY, IT APPEARS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA
AND STATE OF ARKANSAS MAY NEED A FROST ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AND SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOLLOWING
MONDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS A COUPLE
OF DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND KEEP
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVERALL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
EXPECT DEGRADED TAFS ACROSS ALL SITES FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY TO IFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY. ADDITIONALLY, ALL SITES WILL EXPERIENCE -TSRA/-RA
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO GUST
ACROSS ALL SITES ON TUESDAY EVENING IN EXCESS OF ALMOST 30 KNOTS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AT THE TERMINALS OF KHOT AND
KADF FOR THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 62 47 58 42 / 80 90 90 10
CAMDEN AR 66 46 56 42 / 90 40 30 0
HARRISON AR 57 43 53 38 / 90 90 80 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 62 44 56 42 / 100 50 40 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 61 48 57 45 / 90 80 60 0
MONTICELLO AR 67 47 58 45 / 90 70 50 10
MOUNT IDA AR 63 43 56 40 / 100 50 40 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 59 45 55 39 / 90 90 80 10
NEWPORT AR 63 48 58 43 / 80 90 90 10
PINE BLUFF AR 63 46 56 43 / 90 70 60 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 62 45 59 42 / 90 80 50 0
SEARCY AR 62 46 58 42 / 90 90 80 10
STUTTGART AR 62 47 56 44 / 90 80 70 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page