575
FXUS64 KLZK 281721
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1221 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
-THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD AND ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
-TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS
NORTH ACROSS ARKANSAS; WHEREAS, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
CAN EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO NEAR AN INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL.
-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WET WEATHER, CLOUD COVER, AND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
-WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE NEAR OR EXCEEDED IN A FEW SPOTS AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
COMMON WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY.
-FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA AND
ARKANSAS WHICH MAY BE WARRANTED FOR A FROST ADVISORY ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
TUESDAY (TODAY) THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION. AN UPPER LVL CLOSED LOW, WHICH BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
STATE ON SUNDAY HAS TRACKED EASTWARD OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF
THE CONUS. IN ITS WAKE, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT, COMBINED WITH
LINGERING UPPER LVL SUPPORT FROM THE DEPARTING TROF, WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED POP CHANCES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NATURAL STATE WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LVL TROF PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD, STRONG CAA WILL
COMMENCE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BEGIN FUNNELING INTO ARKANSAS. AT
THE SFC, THIS WILL BE NOTED WITH THE PRESENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPPER
OFF COMPLETELY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE WITH LATEST CAMS
SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WHICH MAY PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM
COMPLETELY EXITING THE STATE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A CLASSIC POST-FRONTAL PATTERN. IN THE UPPER LVLS,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER ARKANSAS. AT THE SFC, A
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. IN RESPONSE,
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED INTO THE STATE.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO BE NOTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE TRANSITION PERIOD OF LATE OCTOBER INTO EARLY
NOVEMBER.
A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, STRONG SURFACE WINDS MAY KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTACT OVERNIGHT AND HAMPER RADIATIONAL
COOLING. ALTHOUGH INTO FRIDAY, IT APPEARS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA
AND STATE OF ARKANSAS MAY NEED A FROST ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AND SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOLLOWING
MONDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS A COUPLE
OF DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND KEEP
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVERALL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW TSRA LIKELY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IMPROVEMENTS TO CONDITIONS WILL ARE MOST
LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
AT TIMES AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE BRINGING A PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 47 58 42 62 / 100 90 10 0
CAMDEN AR 46 56 42 62 / 60 30 0 0
HARRISON AR 43 53 38 57 / 100 80 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 44 56 42 62 / 70 40 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 48 57 45 62 / 90 70 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 47 58 45 62 / 80 50 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 43 56 40 62 / 60 30 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 45 55 39 59 / 100 80 0 0
NEWPORT AR 48 58 43 62 / 100 90 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 46 56 43 61 / 90 60 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 45 59 42 63 / 90 60 0 0
SEARCY AR 46 58 42 62 / 100 90 10 0
STUTTGART AR 47 56 44 60 / 90 80 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-
121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-
241-313-340-341.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...73
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