662
FXUS64 KLZK 290501
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1201 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
-THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD AND ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
-TOTAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE TWO-DAY PERIOD IS
EXPECTED TO VARY FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES FROM THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS
NORTH ACROSS ARKANSAS; WHEREAS, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
CAN EXPECT A QUARTER INCH TO NEAR AN INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL.
-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WET WEATHER, CLOUD COVER, AND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
-WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE NEAR OR EXCEEDED IN A FEW SPOTS AS
SURFACE WINDS WILL RAMP UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
COMMON WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY.
-FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL
ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA AND
ARKANSAS WHICH MAY BE WARRANTED FOR A FROST ADVISORY ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
TUESDAY (TODAY) THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
A DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION. AN UPPER LVL CLOSED LOW, WHICH BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE
STATE ON SUNDAY HAS TRACKED EASTWARD OVER THE MID-SOUTH REGION OF
THE CONUS. IN ITS WAKE, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS ARKANSAS FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THIS FRONT, COMBINED WITH
LINGERING UPPER LVL SUPPORT FROM THE DEPARTING TROF, WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED POP CHANCES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
SHOWERS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS ARKANSAS WITH A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE NATURAL STATE WHERE MODEST INSTABILITY MAY EXIST.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LVL TROF PIVOTS NORTHEASTWARD, STRONG CAA WILL
COMMENCE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BEGIN FUNNELING INTO ARKANSAS. AT
THE SFC, THIS WILL BE NOTED WITH THE PRESENCE OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO TAPPER
OFF COMPLETELY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE WITH LATEST CAMS
SHOWING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WHICH MAY PREVENT THE SYSTEM FROM
COMPLETELY EXITING THE STATE UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE MAIN THEME OF THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE
DOMINATED BY A CLASSIC POST-FRONTAL PATTERN. IN THE UPPER LVLS,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE PRESENT OVER ARKANSAS. AT THE SFC, A
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. IN RESPONSE,
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED INTO THE STATE.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO BE NOTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE TRANSITION PERIOD OF LATE OCTOBER INTO EARLY
NOVEMBER.
A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, STRONG SURFACE WINDS MAY KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTACT OVERNIGHT AND HAMPER RADIATIONAL
COOLING. ALTHOUGH INTO FRIDAY, IT APPEARS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA
AND STATE OF ARKANSAS MAY NEED A FROST ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AND SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOLLOWING
MONDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS A COUPLE
OF DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND KEEP
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVERALL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
EXPECT DEGRADED FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING FOR LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY AS A COLD FRONT
EXITS THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT AT THE TAF SITES OF KHOT AND KADF.
SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILL BE PRESENT FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD FOR ALL TERMINALS WHICH WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF NEARLY 30
KNOTS. RAIN AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE EXITING THE STATE FROM WEST
TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE TAF SITE OF KHOT IS "AMD NOT SKED"
DUE TO COMMUNICATION ISSUES WHICH ARE BEING INVESTIGATED AS THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURLY OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN ABSENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 57 41 61 39 / 90 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 56 42 62 38 / 30 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 51 38 56 38 / 90 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 55 41 61 39 / 50 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 55 43 61 42 / 70 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 57 45 63 41 / 50 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 55 40 62 37 / 40 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 55 39 59 38 / 90 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 57 43 62 40 / 100 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 56 43 61 40 / 70 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 58 41 62 39 / 70 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 57 41 61 39 / 90 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 55 43 61 40 / 90 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ004>008-014>017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-
130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-
340-341.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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