847
FXUS64 KLZK 291050
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
550 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
-A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF ARKANSAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH AND WIND GUSTS WHICH
WILL EXCEED 35 MPH, POSSIBLY 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
ARKANSAS.
-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WET WEATHER, CLOUD
COVER, AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
-A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
WEDNESDAY (TODAY) THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT (TONIGHT)
A DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION. THE UPPER LVL TROF AND CLOSED LOW, WHICH BROUGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE ON SUNDAY HAS PIVOTED NORTHEASTWARD AND
IS EXITING THE REGION. AS THE COLD FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE STATE
(ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVING EAST AS OF 2 AM CDT) WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM THE COLD FRONTS PARENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER SITUATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT CAA IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH GUSTING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS USHERING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR ARE PRESENT. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AND WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY BE AS HIGH AS 40
MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ARKANSAS.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
A CLASSIC POST-FRONTAL PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE UPPER LVLS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE NOTED
OVER ARKANSAS WHICH WILL ASSIST IN THE ADVECTING OF A COOL,
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO THE STATE.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO BE NOTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE TRANSITION PERIOD OF LATE OCTOBER INTO EARLY
NOVEMBER.
A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, STRONG SURFACE WINDS MAY KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTACT OVERNIGHT AND HAMPER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
INTO FRIDAY A DIFFERENT STORY, IT APPEARS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA
AND STATE OF ARKANSAS MAY NEED A FROST ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AND SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOLLOWING
TUESDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS A COUPLE
OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND KEEP
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVERALL, BUT A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
NEXT WORKWEEK TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL BE AS LOW AS IFR TO MVFR FOR LOWERED CIGS AND
VSBY ACROSS MOST TERMINALS TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AS THIS STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING TAME
TO EXIT THE STATE AND WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE IS PRESENT NEARLY
STATEWIDE. HOWEVER, ALL PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CIGS/VSBY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY LATE WEDNESDAY
EVENING ACROSS ALL SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF
NEARLY 30 KNOTS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
BEFORE RELAXING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 57 41 62 40 / 90 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 55 42 62 38 / 30 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 51 38 55 38 / 90 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 55 41 61 39 / 50 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 56 44 60 42 / 70 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 56 45 63 41 / 50 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 54 40 62 37 / 40 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 55 40 59 38 / 90 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 58 43 62 41 / 100 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 56 44 61 40 / 70 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 57 41 62 39 / 70 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 57 42 62 39 / 90 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 55 44 60 41 / 90 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ004>008-014>017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-
130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-
340-341.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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