817
FXUS64 KLZK 292346
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
646 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
-A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE STATE OF ARKANSAS THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 MPH AND WIND GUSTS WHICH
WILL EXCEED 35 MPH, POSSIBLY 40 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS
ARKANSAS.
-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MOST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WET WEATHER, CLOUD
COVER, AND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
-A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR A LARGE PORTION OF ARKANSAS ON FRIDAY
MORNING AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
WEDNESDAY (TODAY) THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT (TONIGHT)
A DYNAMIC WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHARACTERIZE THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM EXITS THE
REGION. THE UPPER LVL TROF AND CLOSED LOW, WHICH BROUGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE ON SUNDAY HAS PIVOTED NORTHEASTWARD AND
IS EXITING THE REGION. AS THE COLD FRONT COMPLETELY CLEARS THE STATE
(ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MOVING EAST AS OF 2 AM CDT) WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FROM THE COLD FRONTS PARENT LOW PRESSURE CENTER SITUATED
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI WILL KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT CAA IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH GUSTING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS USHERING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR ARE PRESENT. A WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF SUSTAINED
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH AND WIND GUSTS WHICH MAY BE AS HIGH AS 40
MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ARKANSAS.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
A CLASSIC POST-FRONTAL PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE UPPER LVLS, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE NOTED
OVER ARKANSAS WHICH WILL ASSIST IN THE ADVECTING OF A COOL,
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS INTO THE STATE.
EXPECT A GRADUAL CLEARING OF SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY
WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER TO BE NOTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE TRANSITION PERIOD OF LATE OCTOBER INTO EARLY
NOVEMBER.
A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR A FEW COUNTIES ACROSS NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY MORNING; HOWEVER, STRONG SURFACE WINDS MAY KEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING INTACT OVERNIGHT AND HAMPER RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
INTO FRIDAY A DIFFERENT STORY, IT APPEARS A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA
AND STATE OF ARKANSAS MAY NEED A FROST ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS AND SURFACE
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN CONSIDERABLY ALLOWING FOR EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL
COOLING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOLLOWING
TUESDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS FAR AS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS A COUPLE
OF DRY COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND KEEP
THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE OVERALL, BUT A RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE MAY ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
NEXT WORKWEEK TO BECOME SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
MVFR/VF CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BECOME VFR CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NW AFTER 06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 41 62 40 66 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 42 62 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 38 56 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 42 61 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 44 61 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 45 64 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 40 62 37 68 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 39 59 38 64 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 43 62 40 66 / 10 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 44 62 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 42 63 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 42 62 39 66 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 44 61 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ004>008-014>017-
024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-103-112-113-121>123-
130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-
340-341.
DISCUSSION...74
AVIATION...KELLY
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