014
FXUS64 KLZK 301121
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
621 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
-FROST LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN, AND
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO
THE MID 30S. A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND STATE OF ARKANSAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
-COOL TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND COMPARED
TO SEASONABLE AVERAGES.
-A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ARKANSAS.
-A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
THURSDAY (TODAY) THROUGH FRIDAY
ARKANSAS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A POST-FRONTAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PRESENT OVER ARKANSAS. AT
THE SFC, A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS. EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR FROST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN, AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. A
FROST ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED AS TEMPERATURES DIVE INTO THE 33 TO
36 DEGREE RANGE.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
AN UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO DIVE NEAR THE STATE OUT OF
THE MIDWESTERN REGION OF THE CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL PUSH A
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE OF ARKANSAS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STRAY THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT; HOWEVER OVERALL POP CHANCES WILL BE
LOW AS THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED OVERALL. THE
PRESENCE OF THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
OPPORTUNITY FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES.
INTO THE NEXT WORKWEEK, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. IN RESPONSE,
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LVL FEATURE WILL LEAD
TO A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE COMPARED TO NORMALS
FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
ALL TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 62 40 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 62 38 66 44 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 56 38 63 42 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 62 39 66 45 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 61 41 66 47 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 63 40 67 46 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 62 37 68 43 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 59 38 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 63 40 66 46 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 62 39 65 45 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 63 39 68 46 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 63 39 66 45 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 61 40 65 46 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74
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