407
FXUS64 KLZK 310528
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1228 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
-FROST LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN, AND
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL INTO
THE MID 30S. A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND STATE OF ARKANSAS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
-COOL TEMPERATURES OVERALL WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND COMPARED
TO SEASONABLE AVERAGES.
-A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN
ARKANSAS.
-A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ACROSS ARKANSAS INTO THE UPCOMING
WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2025
THURSDAY (TODAY) THROUGH FRIDAY
ARKANSAS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A POST-FRONTAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
IN THE UPPER LVLS, A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS PRESENT OVER ARKANSAS. AT
THE SFC, A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND WILL
REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH FRIDAY.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOOSENS. EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING ON LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 30S WITH AN INCREASED POTENTIAL
FOR FROST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN, WESTERN, AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. A
FROST ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED AS TEMPERATURES DIVE INTO THE 33 TO
36 DEGREE RANGE.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
AN UPPER LVL SHORTWAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO DIVE NEAR THE STATE OUT OF
THE MIDWESTERN REGION OF THE CONUS. THE SHORTWAVE TROF WILL PUSH A
WEAK SFC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE OF ARKANSAS FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR STRAY THUNDERSTORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT; HOWEVER OVERALL POP CHANCES WILL BE
LOW AS THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED OVERALL. THE
PRESENCE OF THIS WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CONTINUED
OPPORTUNITY FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES.
INTO THE NEXT WORKWEEK, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LVL RIDGE WILL BE PLACED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. IN RESPONSE,
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LVL FEATURE WILL LEAD
TO A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER TO FINISH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
OVERALL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE COMPARED TO NORMALS
FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY
FG WILL BE POSSIBLE CLOSER TO 12Z THIS AM AT KBPK, KHOT, AND KADF
WHICH COULD TEMPORARY REDUCE VIS. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT FROM NW TO SE. WINDS ON FRI SHOULD BE W/NW
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 66 45 59 36 / 0 0 30 20
CAMDEN AR 66 44 62 38 / 0 0 10 10
HARRISON AR 63 43 55 32 / 0 0 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 67 45 60 37 / 0 0 20 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 65 47 60 40 / 0 0 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 67 45 64 41 / 0 0 10 10
MOUNT IDA AR 68 44 61 35 / 0 0 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 64 44 55 33 / 0 0 20 10
NEWPORT AR 66 47 61 38 / 0 0 30 20
PINE BLUFF AR 65 45 62 40 / 0 0 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 67 47 61 36 / 0 0 20 10
SEARCY AR 66 45 61 38 / 0 0 30 20
STUTTGART AR 65 47 61 40 / 0 0 20 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ004>007-014-
015-103-112-113-121-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-223-230-237-
238-240-241-313.
SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...70
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