094
FXUS64 KLZK 311719 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1219 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
-FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF WEST,
NORTHWEST, AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS PROMPTING A FROST ADVISORY.
-RAIN CHANCES ARE SET TO RETURN SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
-FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS.
-MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
LOCALLY, SKIES WERE CLEAR AND WINDS WERE NEARLY CALM EARLY THIS
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE STATE WERE ALREADY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
SUNRISE OVER PORTIONS OF W, NW, AND NRN AR WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
AREAS OF FROST WOULD BE IN THOSE PROTECTED VALLEY LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY BEFORE CLOUD
COVER INCREASES FROM NW TO SE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
60S. OVERNIGHT, SKIES SHOULD BECOME OVERCAST WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
SYNOPTICALLY, NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL THIRD OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DROP SEWRD INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
HIGHEST OVER ROUGHLY THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS, SO WE ARE NOT TALKING
ABOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BY ANY MEANS. IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT, UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NWRLY. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EWRD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE SRN
PLAINS BEFORE SETTLING OVERTOP THE GULF. FLOW LOCALLY WILL
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FAVORING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES
AND ABSENCE OF MENTIONABLE POPS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF SATURDAYS COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW. ADDITIONAL FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
AFFECTED AREAS WOULD BE THE NW HALF OF THE STATE. THESE READINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE TO SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT
WILL BE OBSERVED THIS FRIDAY AM. AFTERWARDS, TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES E OF THE STATE AND WINDS
BECOME SWRLY THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NW
TO SE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY, NOT MAKING IT ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS BY 01/18Z. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME N/NW AT LESS THAN 10 KTS. SOME RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE, WITH HIGHER PROBS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.
NORTHERN AR TERMINALS COULD SEE CIGS LOWER AND VSBY REDUCED AFTER
01/06Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 46 59 36 59 / 10 50 10 0
CAMDEN AR 44 64 38 60 / 0 20 0 0
HARRISON AR 43 56 32 56 / 10 30 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 46 63 37 59 / 0 20 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 49 62 40 58 / 0 20 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 46 65 41 60 / 0 10 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 45 64 35 61 / 0 20 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 45 57 33 57 / 10 30 0 0
NEWPORT AR 48 58 37 58 / 10 40 20 0
PINE BLUFF AR 46 63 39 58 / 0 10 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 48 62 36 60 / 10 30 0 0
SEARCY AR 46 61 36 59 / 10 40 10 0
STUTTGART AR 47 62 39 57 / 0 20 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ARZ004>007-014-015-103-112-113-203-212-213-313.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...67
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