076
FXUS64 KLZK 312313 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
613 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
-FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF WEST,
NORTHWEST, AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS PROMPTING A FROST ADVISORY.
-RAIN CHANCES ARE SET TO RETURN SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
-FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS.
-MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
LOCALLY, SKIES WERE CLEAR AND WINDS WERE NEARLY CALM EARLY THIS
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE STATE WERE ALREADY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
SUNRISE OVER PORTIONS OF W, NW, AND NRN AR WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
AREAS OF FROST WOULD BE IN THOSE PROTECTED VALLEY LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY BEFORE CLOUD
COVER INCREASES FROM NW TO SE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
60S. OVERNIGHT, SKIES SHOULD BECOME OVERCAST WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
SYNOPTICALLY, NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL THIRD OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DROP SEWRD INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
HIGHEST OVER ROUGHLY THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS, SO WE ARE NOT TALKING
ABOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BY ANY MEANS. IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT, UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NWRLY. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EWRD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE SRN
PLAINS BEFORE SETTLING OVERTOP THE GULF. FLOW LOCALLY WILL
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FAVORING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES
AND ABSENCE OF MENTIONABLE POPS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF SATURDAYS COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW. ADDITIONAL FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
AFFECTED AREAS WOULD BE THE NW HALF OF THE STATE. THESE READINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE TO SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT
WILL BE OBSERVED THIS FRIDAY AM. AFTERWARDS, TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES E OF THE STATE AND WINDS
BECOME SWRLY THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
VFR CONDNS WERE NOTED AROUND THE FA FRI EVNG, AND ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THRU THE NEW TAF PD. OVERNIGHT, INCRSG HIGH CLOUD COVG WL
BE SEEN FM NW TO CNTRL TO SERN AR. A WEAK CDFRNT APRCHG FM THE NW
WL BRING PRECIP CHANCES TO MAINLY NRN TERMINALS NEAR AND AROUND
01/12Z SAT MRNG. CONFIDENCE OF PRECIP DIMINISHES FURTHER SWRD THRU
THE DAY. A WEAK WIND SHIFT WL BE NOTED ACRS NRN AR, W/ W-NWRLY
WINDS PREVAILING BEHIND THE FRNT, W/ LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE, MID-LVL CLOUD COVG WL INCREASE THRU THE DAY
SAT, W/ CIGS PERSISTING AROUND 7-10KFT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 46 59 36 57 / 10 50 10 0
CAMDEN AR 45 64 37 60 / 0 20 0 0
HARRISON AR 43 55 32 55 / 10 30 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 47 63 37 59 / 0 30 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 49 60 39 56 / 10 30 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 46 64 40 59 / 0 10 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 46 63 35 61 / 10 30 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 44 56 33 56 / 10 30 0 0
NEWPORT AR 49 60 37 58 / 10 50 20 0
PINE BLUFF AR 47 63 38 57 / 0 20 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 47 62 36 60 / 10 40 0 0
SEARCY AR 47 60 37 57 / 10 40 10 0
STUTTGART AR 48 63 38 56 / 0 30 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ARZ004>007-014-015-103-112-113-203-212-213-313.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...72
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