714
FXUS64 KLZK 010543
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1243 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
-FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF WEST,
NORTHWEST, AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS PROMPTING A FROST ADVISORY.
-RAIN CHANCES ARE SET TO RETURN SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
-FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY
MORNING OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS.
-MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
LOCALLY, SKIES WERE CLEAR AND WINDS WERE NEARLY CALM EARLY THIS
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES AROUND THE STATE WERE ALREADY IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S. PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR
SUNRISE OVER PORTIONS OF W, NW, AND NRN AR WHERE TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S. THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
AREAS OF FROST WOULD BE IN THOSE PROTECTED VALLEY LOCATIONS WITHIN
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY BEFORE CLOUD
COVER INCREASES FROM NW TO SE. HIGHS TODAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
60S. OVERNIGHT, SKIES SHOULD BECOME OVERCAST WITH LOWS ONLY DIPPING
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S.
SYNOPTICALLY, NW FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE CNTRL THIRD OF THE
CONUS. BY SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DROP SEWRD INTO
THE MID MS VALLEY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE
HIGHEST OVER ROUGHLY THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS, SO WE ARE NOT TALKING
ABOUT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL BY ANY MEANS. IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE
FRONT, UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NWRLY. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EWRD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE SRN
PLAINS BEFORE SETTLING OVERTOP THE GULF. FLOW LOCALLY WILL
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FAVORING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES
AND ABSENCE OF MENTIONABLE POPS.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF SATURDAYS COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE
INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW. ADDITIONAL FROST AND
FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE MOST LIKELY
AFFECTED AREAS WOULD BE THE NW HALF OF THE STATE. THESE READINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE TO SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT
WILL BE OBSERVED THIS FRIDAY AM. AFTERWARDS, TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES E OF THE STATE AND WINDS
BECOME SWRLY THROUGH MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. OVERNIGHT,
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
SHRA/VCSH IS POSSIBLE OVER CNTRL/NRN SITES ON SAT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPORARY VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PRECIP. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH CLOUDS DECREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 59 33 57 35 / 60 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 65 37 60 34 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 54 32 55 37 / 40 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 64 35 60 36 / 10 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 62 38 57 38 / 20 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 65 38 60 37 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 65 31 61 35 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 56 31 56 35 / 50 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 60 36 57 35 / 60 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 65 37 58 35 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 61 35 61 37 / 30 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 61 34 58 34 / 40 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 64 38 57 37 / 20 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ARZ004>007-014>016-024-039-042-103-112-113-123-130-137-138-140-
141-203-212-213-223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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