712
FXUS64 KLZK 010753
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
253 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
-SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
-FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING OVER
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.
-FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER REMAINING SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY MORNING.
-MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SKY CONDITIONS RANGED FROM OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON THIS
FIRST MORNING OF NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S AND WINDS WERE NEARLY CALM. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SWEEPS ACROSS
THE STATE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SYNOPTICALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DROP SEWRD INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE H850
FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHEST OVER ROUGHLY THE
N/NE HALF OF THE STATE AND PRECIP MODE SHOULD BE STRATIFORM IN
NATURE. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NWRLY ONCE
AGAIN. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EWRD OUT OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AFTERWARDS, THE
RIDGE WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE ZONAL FAVORING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND ABSENCE
OF MENTIONABLE POPS, AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN LOW END RAIN
CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION.
ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAYS COLD FRONT SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE HIGH.
CURRENTLY, A FREEZE WATCH IS IN PLACE ACROSS W, NW, AND NRN AR FOR
SUNDAY MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO OR WELL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK (UPPER 20S). NEARBY, BUT JUST OUTSIDE OF
THESE AREAS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FROST POTENTIAL, BUT WINDS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. TOO HIGH OF WINDS COULD PRECLUDE FROST
FORMATION.
ADDITIONAL FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY MORNING. THE
SETUP SHOULD HAVE THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED TO THE SE OF AR WITH
WINDS GOING NEARLY CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WOULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES E OF THE STATE AND WINDS BECOME
SWRLY THROUGH MID-TO-LATE WEEK. AS ALREADY MENTIONED, POP CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. OVERNIGHT,
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
SHRA/VCSH IS POSSIBLE OVER CNTRL/NRN SITES ON SAT WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPORARY VFR/MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
PRECIP. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY
WITH CLOUDS DECREASING LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 59 33 57 35 / 60 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 65 37 60 34 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 54 32 55 37 / 40 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 64 35 60 36 / 10 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 62 38 57 38 / 20 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 65 38 60 37 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 65 31 61 35 / 20 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 56 31 56 35 / 50 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 60 36 57 35 / 60 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 65 37 58 35 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 61 35 61 37 / 30 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 61 34 58 34 / 40 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 64 38 57 37 / 20 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ARZ004>007-014>016-024-039-042-103-112-113-123-130-137-138-140-
141-203-212-213-223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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