915
FXUS64 KLZK 011716 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1216 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
-SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ARKANSAS ON SATURDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
-FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING OVER
ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE.
-FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER REMAINING SOUTHEAST HALF OF ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY MORNING.
-MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SKY CONDITIONS RANGED FROM OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ON THIS
FIRST MORNING OF NOVEMBER. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 50S AND WINDS WERE NEARLY CALM. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND SWEEPS ACROSS
THE STATE FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS.
SYNOPTICALLY, AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL DROP SEWRD INTO THE
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE H850
FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE HIGHEST OVER ROUGHLY THE
N/NE HALF OF THE STATE AND PRECIP MODE SHOULD BE STRATIFORM IN
NATURE. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH. IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME NWRLY ONCE
AGAIN. EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLIDE EWRD OUT OF
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SRN PLAINS. AFTERWARDS, THE
RIDGE WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE GULF. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE ZONAL FAVORING A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND ABSENCE
OF MENTIONABLE POPS, AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN LOW END RAIN
CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION.
ON THE HEELS OF SATURDAYS COLD FRONT SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM NW TO SE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE HIGH.
CURRENTLY, A FREEZE WATCH IS IN PLACE ACROSS W, NW, AND NRN AR FOR
SUNDAY MORNING WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO OR WELL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK (UPPER 20S). NEARBY, BUT JUST OUTSIDE OF
THESE AREAS WILL BE MONITORED FOR FROST POTENTIAL, BUT WINDS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED. TOO HIGH OF WINDS COULD PRECLUDE FROST
FORMATION.
ADDITIONAL FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY MORNING. THE
SETUP SHOULD HAVE THE SURFACE HIGH POSITIONED TO THE SE OF AR WITH
WINDS GOING NEARLY CALM UNDER CLEAR SKIES. AREAS FURTHER S AND E
WOULD BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES E OF THE STATE AND WINDS BECOME
SWRLY THROUGH MID-TO-LATE WEEK. AS ALREADY MENTIONED, POP CHANCES
COULD RETURN BY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT NOV 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND IS BRINGING NW-N WINDS IN ITS WAKE UP TO 10 KTS. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 02/00Z BEFORE
DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 33 57 35 67 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 37 60 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 32 55 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 35 60 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 38 57 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 38 60 37 67 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 31 61 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 31 56 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 36 57 35 66 / 10 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 37 58 35 66 / 10 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 35 61 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 34 58 34 67 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 38 57 37 65 / 10 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ004>007-
014>016-024-039-042-103-112-113-123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-
213-223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ031>033-
043>045-052>056-062-063-121-122-221-222.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...67
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