053
FXUS64 KLZK 171140
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
540 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK, WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND TOWARDS RECORD LEVELS AGAIN ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
-LIGHT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED TODAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS
-SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY BENEFICIAL RAINS ACROSS THE STATE, BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AS AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE DOWNSTREAM OF THE
ANOMALOUS PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAKE FORM ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IN ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AS A WARM FRONTAL BAND USHERS IN A MORE
MOIST AIRMASS. IR SATELLITE IS DEPICTING A PRETTY EXPANSIVE AREA
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE AND SHOULD
PERSIST AND PUSH FURTHER NORTH GOING THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS AREA TODAY, PRIOR TO A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS, BUT CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ARE THE FAVORED AREAS FOR ACCUMULATING RAINS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE NBM POP'S ARE MAXING OUT AROUND 30-40%.
POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING MORE DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN GOING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES
DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLAY BOTH DAYS
DEPENDING ON THE CLIMATE SITE AND REGIONAL CLOUD COVER, AS
RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RUN IN THE LOW TO MID-80S.
AS THIS PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, A MORE ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT EAST OF THE
ROCKIES DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE INITIAL WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THUS, THE TIMING TREND CONTINUES TO SLOW RELATIVE TO THE
LAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES, WHICH IS LESSENING OVERALL STORM
TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND LOWERING THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST NBM PROJECTIONS SEEM TO BE
INDICATING THIS IS THE CASE, AS THE 50TH PERCENTILE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY IS WIDESPREAD 1-2", BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS
ONLY IN THE 3-4" RANGE FAVORING WESTERN ARKANSAS. THUS, DUE TO THE
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, EXPECT MORE
OF A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EVENT MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH ONLY AREAS
THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS/DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT
PERIOD TO POSE ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
ONCE THE RAINFALL CLEARS THE AREA GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND, ANOTHER
AMPLIFYING RIDGE SEEMS FAVORED AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEST UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT SHOULD THE CUTOFF SCENARIO COME TO FRUITION, EXPECT
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WHENEVER THE PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD, WE CAN
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN, BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AS CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGESTS AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS, WITH ANTICIPATION THAT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND SPREAD FURTHER NORTH. THUS, MULTIPLE
TERMINALS MAY SEE SOME MINOR BRIEF IMPACTS WITH ANY PASSING
SHOWER, BUT THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR CEILINGS NOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE PERIOD, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AS THE MAIN FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR
TRENDS REGARDING THOSE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE EASTERLY DIRECTION, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON
GUSTS 15-20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 64 57 81 56 / 40 30 10 10
CAMDEN AR 78 63 80 61 / 20 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 64 55 79 52 / 30 40 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 64 79 62 / 40 10 10 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 70 63 79 62 / 40 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 79 64 82 64 / 20 10 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 75 65 81 62 / 30 20 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 62 54 80 50 / 30 40 0 0
NEWPORT AR 66 59 80 58 / 40 30 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 75 63 80 62 / 30 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 68 60 82 58 / 40 30 10 0
SEARCY AR 67 58 79 58 / 40 20 10 10
STUTTGART AR 71 63 79 62 / 30 10 10 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...77
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