645
FXUS64 KLZK 172244
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
444 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSISTING THROUGH MOST OF THIS
WEEK, WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND TOWARDS RECORD LEVELS AGAIN ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
-LIGHT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED TODAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS
-SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY BENEFICIAL RAINS ACROSS THE STATE, BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST MON NOV 17 2025
PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS WEAKENING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AS AN EJECTING SHORTWAVE DOWNSTREAM OF THE
ANOMALOUS PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO TAKE FORM ACROSS THE
PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IN ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AS A WARM FRONTAL BAND USHERS IN A MORE
MOIST AIRMASS. IR SATELLITE IS DEPICTING A PRETTY EXPANSIVE AREA
OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE AND SHOULD
PERSIST AND PUSH FURTHER NORTH GOING THROUGH THE DAY. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS AREA TODAY, PRIOR TO A MOSTLY DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. MOST AREAS
WILL LIKELY NOT SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS, BUT CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
ARKANSAS ARE THE FAVORED AREAS FOR ACCUMULATING RAINS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE NBM POP'S ARE MAXING OUT AROUND 30-40%.
POST-FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING MORE DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN GOING
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFIES
DOWNSTREAM OF ANOTHER DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY BACK INTO THE 70S
AND LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS AGAIN ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLAY BOTH DAYS
DEPENDING ON THE CLIMATE SITE AND REGIONAL CLOUD COVER, AS
RECORDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR RUN IN THE LOW TO MID-80S.
AS THIS PACIFIC TROUGH SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK, A MORE ENERGETIC SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT EAST OF THE
ROCKIES DURING THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL AID IN
THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THE INITIAL WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THUS, THE TIMING TREND CONTINUES TO SLOW RELATIVE TO THE
LAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES, WHICH IS LESSENING OVERALL STORM
TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND LOWERING THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST NBM PROJECTIONS SEEM TO BE
INDICATING THIS IS THE CASE, AS THE 50TH PERCENTILE STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY IS WIDESPREAD 1-2", BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS
ONLY IN THE 3-4" RANGE FAVORING WESTERN ARKANSAS. THUS, DUE TO THE
CONTINUED DOWNWARD TREND IN TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, EXPECT MORE
OF A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EVENT MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH ONLY AREAS
THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS/DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT
PERIOD TO POSE ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
ONCE THE RAINFALL CLEARS THE AREA GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND, ANOTHER
AMPLIFYING RIDGE SEEMS FAVORED AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THERE REMAINS SOME MODEST UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW PROGRESSIVE THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT SHOULD THE CUTOFF SCENARIO COME TO FRUITION, EXPECT
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WHENEVER THE PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD, WE CAN
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN, BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK AS CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGESTS AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 444 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
TAFS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL RANGE FROM VFR TO AS LOW AS IFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY FOR LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. AT
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF KHRO AND KBPK, EXPECT A FEW HOURS AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LLWS THAT WILL SUBSIDE BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW VCTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ALL TERMINALS
WILL EXPERIENCE SURFACE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 23 KNOTS BETWEEN
LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THE CIGS WILL LOWER
AT THE WESTERN SITES AND FAR SOUTHERN SITES INCLUDING: KHOT, KADF,
AND KLLQ TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 57 81 56 76 / 30 10 10 10
CAMDEN AR 63 80 62 81 / 10 10 0 10
HARRISON AR 55 79 49 73 / 50 0 0 20
HOT SPRINGS AR 63 79 62 81 / 20 10 10 20
LITTLE ROCK AR 63 78 62 78 / 20 10 0 10
MONTICELLO AR 64 81 64 82 / 10 10 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 64 81 61 82 / 20 10 10 20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 54 81 49 73 / 50 10 0 10
NEWPORT AR 60 81 58 77 / 30 10 10 10
PINE BLUFF AR 63 80 63 81 / 10 10 10 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 59 83 56 80 / 30 10 0 20
SEARCY AR 58 80 59 78 / 20 10 10 10
STUTTGART AR 62 80 62 80 / 10 10 10 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
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