823
FXUS64 KLZK 180928
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
328 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
-ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING
-WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH SOME
AREAS NEARING RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TERRITORY
-MAINLY BENEFICIAL RAINS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NATURAL STATE LATE
THIS WEEK, WITH THE BULK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SOME
POTENTIAL THAT A FEW STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. CAM'S SHOW SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN NE MAINLY LATE TODAY
AND INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
AS THE FRONT EXITS EAST OF THE STATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL CHALLENGE DAILY
RECORD HIGHS FOR SOME LOCATIONS TODAY AND EXTENDING INTO TOMORROW.
THE ANTICIPATED WEATHER DISTURBANCE SET TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER
THIS WEEK CONTINUES TO SLOW AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ALOFT CONTINUES TO DELAY PROGRESSION EASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR
WITH TIMING AND AMOUNTS, THE IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT
SEEMINGLY CONTINUE TO DECREASE AS STORM TOTAL RAINFALL LIKEWISE IS
DECREASING. THE WARM FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN ENHANCED LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR ANY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DELAY MORE INTO THE EARLY THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME, PRIOR TO THE MAIN COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE STATE
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
TAKING A GLANCE AT THE LATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS, MOST LIKELY
(HIGHER END) STORM TOTALS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY REMAIN AROUND
1.00" (1-2"), WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-3" (3-5") FOR WESTERN
ARKANSAS. CONTRAST WITH THIS OUTLOOK WITH THE PREVIOUS 24-48
HOURS, THE MOST LIKELY AND HIGHER END STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS HAVE
COME DOWN AROUND 2". THUS, AS GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THIS EVENT, THE DOWNTREND IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
THE REGION SUGGEST A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE NATURAL
STATE AS SOILS WILL BE RECEPTIVE AND NOT CAUSE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AS
THE HEAVIEST RAINS MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER, ANY AREAS (WHICH WOULD
FAVOR WESTERN ARKANSAS) THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE HEAVY
THUNDERSTORMS/DOWNPOURS IN A SHORT PERIOD WOULD POSE A LOW FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.
ONCE THE RAINFALL CLEARS THE AREA GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND, ANOTHER
AMPLIFYING RIDGE SEEMS FAVORED AS ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE WEST COAST. THERE REMAINS MODEST UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
PROGRESSIVE THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT SHOULD THE CUTOFF SCENARIO COME TO FRUITION,
EXPECT BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST
THIS WEEKEND. WHENEVER THE PACIFIC TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD, WE CAN
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN, BUT THAT MIGHT NOT BE WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK AS CURRENT PROJECTIONS SUGGESTS AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST MON NOV 17 2025
THE FORECAST PERIOD OF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL BEGIN IN VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY. HOWEVER, LOWERED CIGS
WILL DROP TO MVFR AT THE WESTERN, CENTRAL, AND SOUTHEASTERN
TERMINALS OF KLIT, KHOT, KADF, KPBF, KLLQ FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATER TUESDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF
KHRO AND KBPK IN ADDITION TO THE CENTRAL SITE OF KLIT. SURFACE WINDS
WILL GUST IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN LATER
TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE GUSTING CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 80 55 77 56 / 10 0 0 50
CAMDEN AR 80 62 81 63 / 10 0 0 30
HARRISON AR 79 49 73 57 / 0 0 10 60
HOT SPRINGS AR 79 60 81 63 / 10 10 10 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 79 61 79 62 / 10 0 0 40
MONTICELLO AR 82 64 83 63 / 10 0 0 20
MOUNT IDA AR 81 59 82 63 / 10 10 10 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 81 50 72 55 / 10 0 0 60
NEWPORT AR 79 58 76 60 / 10 10 0 40
PINE BLUFF AR 80 63 82 63 / 10 10 0 30
RUSSELLVILLE AR 83 55 79 61 / 10 0 10 60
SEARCY AR 79 58 78 59 / 10 10 0 40
STUTTGART AR 79 63 80 62 / 10 10 0 30
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...77
AVIATION...74
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