294
FXUS64 KLZK 190835
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
235 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
- WEAK COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH SOME AREAS NEARING
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TERRITORY OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
- BENEFICIAL RAINS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY,
ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WET WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
REGIONAL OBS DEPICT A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL AR THIS WED
MORNING. DEW POINT TEMPS VARIED BY A GREATER MARGIN THAN AIR TEMPS
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BUT THE DIFFERENCES WERE EASILY APPARENT
NONETHELESS. SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART HAD COME TO AN END
HOWEVER A STRAY SHOWER BEFORE DAWN IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.
TODAY, THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SRN 1/3RD OF THE
STATE BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NWRD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S N TO LOWER 80S
S. FOR REFERENCE, HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR THE DATE. GIVEN THIS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMP PATTERN, RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SRN HALF
OF AR. RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
SYNOPTICALLY, A RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WILL
SHIFT EWRD THIS AFTERNOON AS A PROGRESSIVE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED
LOW MOVE INTO THE SWRN CONUS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE W AS FORCING FOR ASCENT, LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALL COME
TOGETHER ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY, A RATHER LARGE LOBE OF
ENERGY SHOULD EJECT FROM THE PARENT TROUGH, TRAVERSING ACROSS THE
PLAINS, AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BENEATH SAID UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. CONTINUED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROMOTE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY ACROSS AR.
QPF TRENDS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DOWNWARD IN REGARDS TO DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WHAT HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITHIN THE DATA
SET IS THE PREFERRED CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. PROBABILISTIC
DATA DEPICTS 40%-60% CHANCE OF >2" RAINFALL ACROSS W AND NW AR
(CENTERED OVER W AR RIVER VALLEY) AND 40%->90% CHANCE OF >1"
RAINFALL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW 2/3RDS OF AR. ANALYZING CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE WHICH PRESENTLY SITS AT 6HR FFG OF 3-5", 3HR FFG OF 3-
4", AND 1HR FFG OF 2-3", THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
APPEARS LOW. DETERMINISTIC FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2" OF RAIN FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME SPAN ACROSS NW HALF OF AR (POSSIBLY UP TO 2-3"
IN PLACES), TO 1" OR LESS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF AR. THAT SAID, A
CORRIDOR OF TRAINING HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD STILL OCCUR, PROMPTING
SMALLER SCALE GREATER FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS
THE FORMER PARENT TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE ROCKIES. COMPACT RIDGING
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING NICE CONDITIONS TO AR FOR
ONE TO TWO DAYS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS PROVIDING
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. SEVERAL KEY
FEATURES REMAIN AT LARGE SUCH AS DEPTH/ORIENTATION OF TROUGH,
LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW, AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
SURFACE LOW. THESE FEATURES WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS
AND WILL IMPACT OVERALL EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DRIER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAIN
TAKEAWAY, QPF AMOUNTS COULD BE GREATER WITH THIS LATTER SYSTEM THAN
THE FORMER SYSTEM. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LARGELY REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BETWEEN ACROSS ALL SITES BETWEEN THE
FORECAST TIMEFRAME OF EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE STALLING ACROSS THE STATE. THE SITE OF KBPK IS "AMD NOT SKED" DUE
TO A COMMUNICATION ISSUE THAT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BEING WORKED ON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 73 55 70 60 / 0 50 90 90
CAMDEN AR 80 63 77 62 / 10 40 40 80
HARRISON AR 71 55 67 58 / 0 60 100 100
HOT SPRINGS AR 79 63 74 61 / 10 60 80 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 77 62 73 63 / 0 40 80 80
MONTICELLO AR 82 65 80 64 / 10 20 30 60
MOUNT IDA AR 81 62 74 61 / 10 70 90 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 54 66 58 / 0 60 100 90
NEWPORT AR 73 58 70 62 / 0 40 90 80
PINE BLUFF AR 80 64 78 63 / 10 30 60 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 77 60 72 61 / 0 50 90 90
SEARCY AR 74 58 71 60 / 0 30 90 80
STUTTGART AR 77 63 76 63 / 0 30 70 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...74
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