877
FXUS64 KLZK 200509
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1109 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
- WEAK COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH SOME AREAS NEARING
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE TERRITORY OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
- BENEFICIAL RAINS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY,
ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WET WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY-WEDNESDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
REGIONAL OBS DEPICT A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL AR THIS WED
MORNING. DEW POINT TEMPS VARIED BY A GREATER MARGIN THAN AIR TEMPS
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT BUT THE DIFFERENCES WERE EASILY APPARENT
NONETHELESS. SPOTTY SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART HAD COME TO AN END
HOWEVER A STRAY SHOWER BEFORE DAWN IS STILL POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.
TODAY, THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE SRN 1/3RD OF THE
STATE BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING NWRD AS A WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S N TO LOWER 80S
S. FOR REFERENCE, HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
FOR THE DATE. GIVEN THIS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMP PATTERN, RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE APPROACHED OR EXCEEDED ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SRN HALF
OF AR. RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE MINIMAL BUT
CLOUDS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
SYNOPTICALLY, A RIDGE AXIS WHICH IS SETTLED OVER THE REGION WILL
SHIFT EWRD THIS AFTERNOON AS A PROGRESSIVE DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED
LOW MOVE INTO THE SWRN CONUS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE W AS FORCING FOR ASCENT, LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALL COME
TOGETHER ACROSS THE REGION. BY THURSDAY, A RATHER LARGE LOBE OF
ENERGY SHOULD EJECT FROM THE PARENT TROUGH, TRAVERSING ACROSS THE
PLAINS, AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. LEE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BENEATH SAID UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. CONTINUED
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROMOTE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY ACROSS AR.
QPF TRENDS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY HAVE BEEN
TRENDING DOWNWARD IN REGARDS TO DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. WHAT HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITHIN THE DATA
SET IS THE PREFERRED CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. PROBABILISTIC
DATA DEPICTS 40%-60% CHANCE OF >2" RAINFALL ACROSS W AND NW AR
(CENTERED OVER W AR RIVER VALLEY) AND 40%->90% CHANCE OF >1"
RAINFALL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW 2/3RDS OF AR. ANALYZING CURRENT FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE WHICH PRESENTLY SITS AT 6HR FFG OF 3-5", 3HR FFG OF 3-
4", AND 1HR FFG OF 2-3", THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
APPEARS LOW. DETERMINISTIC FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2" OF RAIN FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME SPAN ACROSS NW HALF OF AR (POSSIBLY UP TO 2-3"
IN PLACES), TO 1" OR LESS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF AR. THAT SAID, A
CORRIDOR OF TRAINING HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD STILL OCCUR, PROMPTING
SMALLER SCALE GREATER FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS
THE FORMER PARENT TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE ROCKIES. COMPACT RIDGING
WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING NICE CONDITIONS TO AR FOR
ONE TO TWO DAYS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO RETURN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS PROVIDING
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. SEVERAL KEY
FEATURES REMAIN AT LARGE SUCH AS DEPTH/ORIENTATION OF TROUGH,
LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW, AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE
SURFACE LOW. THESE FEATURES WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS
AND WILL IMPACT OVERALL EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS. DRIER WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAIN
TAKEAWAY, QPF AMOUNTS COULD BE GREATER WITH THIS LATTER SYSTEM THAN
THE FORMER SYSTEM. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL LARGELY REMAIN
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST WED NOV 19 2025
EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BECOME DEGRADED ACROSS
MOST SITES DUE TO LOWERING CIGS AND VSBY. VSBY WILL LOWER TO AS LOW
AS LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS OF KHRO AND KBPK AND AS LOW AS MVFR ELSEWHERE LATER INTO
THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL LOWER VSBY AS
WELL. CIGS WILL LOWER TO AS LOW AS IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS THE
STATE AS SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA MOVES INTO THE STATE DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY. THE TERMINAL OF KBPK HAS BEEN FORECASTED FOR, BUT
REMAINS "AMD NOT SKED" FOR A COMPLETE COMMUNICATION FAILURE OF THE
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS NOT PRESENT. THE FAA HAS BEEN CONTACTED AND A
NOTAM HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TERMINAL OF KBPK DUE TO THE FAILURE OF
THE ASOS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 69 56 70 59 / 0 50 90 90
CAMDEN AR 82 65 77 63 / 10 60 50 70
HARRISON AR 71 57 67 58 / 0 60 90 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 82 64 74 62 / 10 80 90 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 79 63 74 63 / 10 60 90 80
MONTICELLO AR 82 66 80 65 / 0 30 40 50
MOUNT IDA AR 86 64 74 61 / 10 80 90 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 68 55 66 57 / 0 70 90 90
NEWPORT AR 67 59 70 63 / 0 40 100 80
PINE BLUFF AR 83 65 78 63 / 10 50 70 60
RUSSELLVILLE AR 80 62 72 62 / 10 70 90 90
SEARCY AR 76 60 72 60 / 0 50 100 80
STUTTGART AR 82 65 76 64 / 10 50 80 60
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-033-034-113-123-213-222-223-313.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...74
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