469
FXUS64 KLZK 201147
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
547 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT
- STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS TODAY AND
LINGER INTO FRIDAY; THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
- ADDITIONAL ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING; POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADARS DEPICTED A GRADUAL UPTICK IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SW AND N AR, ERN OK, AND NE TX EARLY
THIS THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TREND OF INCREASING CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES AR FROM
THE W. REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AR. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
MEANDER SLOWLY NWRD TODAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY,
PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED AS INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERLAPS INTO COOLER LOCATIONS OF N-CNTRL AND NE AR.
GIVEN THIS, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR N-CNTRL AND NE
AR THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. TODAY, HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 60S OVER NRN AR, TO NEAR 70/LOWER 70S ACROSS CNTRL,
TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER SRN AR. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
BREAKING HIGH TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER SRN AR.
SYNOPTICALLY, LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
BEGINNING THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
W/SW AS FORCING FOR ASCENT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALL MERGE OVERTOP THE REGION. A
RATHER LARGE LOBE OF ENERGY SHOULD EJECT FROM THE PARENT TROUGH,
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE PLAINS, AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BENEATH
SAID UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. CONTINUED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
PROMOTE PRECIPITATION INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY
ACROSS AR. GREATEST POP CHANCES AND HIGHEST QPF POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
QPF TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD IN REGARDS
TO DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
WHAT HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITHIN THE DATA SET IS THE PREFERRED
CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. PROBABILISTIC DATA DEPICTS 20%-60%
CHANCE OF >2" RAINFALL ACROSS W AND NW AR (CENTERED OVER W AR
RIVER VALLEY) AND 40% TO NEAR 100% CHANCE OF >1" RAINFALL ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NW 2/3RDS OF AR. ANALYZING CURRENT FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE WHICH PRESENTLY SITS AT 6HR FFG OF 3-5", 3HR FFG OF 3-4",
AND 1HR FFG OF 2-3", THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
APPEARS VERY LOW. DETERMINISTIC FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2" OF RAIN
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME SPAN ACROSS NW HALF OF AR (POSSIBLY UP
TO 2-3" IN PLACES), TO 1" OR LESS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF AR. THAT
SAID, A CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD STILL OCCUR, PROMPTING
SMALLER SCALE FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
FORMER PARENT TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. COMPACT AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING NICE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO AR FOR 1-2 DAYS. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AGAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SEVERAL
KEY FEATURES REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME SUCH AS DEPTH/ORIENTATION
OF TROUGH, LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW, AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOW. THESE FEATURES/FACTORS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS AND WILL IMPACT OVERALL EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MAIN TAKEAWAY, QPF AMOUNTS COULD BE MUCH HIGHER
WITH THIS LATTER SYSTEM THAN THE FORMER SYSTEM.
TEMPS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRIER
WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NRN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF A POTENT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
AM FG IS EXPECTED OVER N-CNTRL/NE AR THROUGH 16Z THIS MORNING,
COULD LINGER ~18Z IF PRECIP DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THAT
TIME. SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM SW TO NE TODAY
THROUGH OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL,
HOWEVER IFR CONDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY HEAVIER PRECIP AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AT 10 KTS OR LESS BUT DIRECTION WILL VARY FROM E/SE
TODAY TO S/SW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 66 59 75 55 / 90 90 60 20
CAMDEN AR 77 63 76 55 / 50 70 40 20
HARRISON AR 64 58 73 50 / 90 90 50 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 73 62 75 54 / 90 90 40 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 72 63 75 56 / 90 80 40 10
MONTICELLO AR 79 65 78 60 / 40 50 60 20
MOUNT IDA AR 74 62 76 52 / 90 90 40 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 62 58 75 51 / 90 90 50 10
NEWPORT AR 66 61 75 57 / 100 80 60 30
PINE BLUFF AR 77 63 78 57 / 70 60 50 20
RUSSELLVILLE AR 71 61 77 53 / 90 90 40 10
SEARCY AR 70 59 75 54 / 100 80 50 20
STUTTGART AR 75 64 77 58 / 80 60 50 20
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ004>008-
014>017-024-025-033-034-113-123-213-222-223-313.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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