480
FXUS64 KLZK 210511
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1111 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT
- STORM SYSTEM SET TO IMPACT ARKANSAS FROM THE PLAINS TODAY AND
LINGER INTO FRIDAY; THE SYSTEM SHOULD BRING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
- ADDITIONAL ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING; POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM CST THU NOV 20 2025
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADARS DEPICTED A GRADUAL UPTICK IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SW AND N AR, ERN OK, AND NE TX EARLY
THIS THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TREND OF INCREASING CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES AR FROM
THE W. REGIONAL SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL AR. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD
MEANDER SLOWLY NWRD TODAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY,
PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED AS INCREASING MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERLAPS INTO COOLER LOCATIONS OF N-CNTRL AND NE AR.
GIVEN THIS, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR N-CNTRL AND NE
AR THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. TODAY, HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 60S OVER NRN AR, TO NEAR 70/LOWER 70S ACROSS CNTRL,
TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S OVER SRN AR. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD
BREAKING HIGH TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN OVER SRN AR.
SYNOPTICALLY, LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION
BEGINNING THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
W/SW AS FORCING FOR ASCENT, LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION, AND
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL JET DYNAMICS ALL MERGE OVERTOP THE REGION. A
RATHER LARGE LOBE OF ENERGY SHOULD EJECT FROM THE PARENT TROUGH,
TRAVERSING ACROSS THE PLAINS, AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BENEATH
SAID UPPER LEVEL FEATURE. CONTINUED FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
PROMOTE PRECIPITATION INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY
ACROSS AR. GREATEST POP CHANCES AND HIGHEST QPF POTENTIAL SHOULD
BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
QPF TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD IN REGARDS
TO DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
WHAT HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITHIN THE DATA SET IS THE PREFERRED
CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER RAINFALL. PROBABILISTIC DATA DEPICTS 20%-60%
CHANCE OF >2" RAINFALL ACROSS W AND NW AR (CENTERED OVER W AR
RIVER VALLEY) AND 40% TO NEAR 100% CHANCE OF >1" RAINFALL ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE NW 2/3RDS OF AR. ANALYZING CURRENT FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE WHICH PRESENTLY SITS AT 6HR FFG OF 3-5", 3HR FFG OF 3-4",
AND 1HR FFG OF 2-3", THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING
APPEARS VERY LOW. DETERMINISTIC FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2" OF RAIN
FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME SPAN ACROSS NW HALF OF AR (POSSIBLY UP
TO 2-3" IN PLACES), TO 1" OR LESS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF AR. THAT
SAID, A CORRIDOR OF HEAVIER RAINFALL COULD STILL OCCUR, PROMPTING
SMALLER SCALE FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
FORMER PARENT TROUGH EJECTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS. COMPACT AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL PRECEDE THE TROUGH WHICH WILL
BRING NICE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO AR FOR 1-2 DAYS. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AGAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION. SEVERAL
KEY FEATURES REMAIN UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME SUCH AS DEPTH/ORIENTATION
OF TROUGH, LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW, AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE LOW. THESE FEATURES/FACTORS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS AND WILL IMPACT OVERALL EXPECTED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. MAIN TAKEAWAY, QPF AMOUNTS COULD BE MUCH HIGHER
WITH THIS LATTER SYSTEM THAN THE FORMER SYSTEM.
TEMPS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR
BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRIER
WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NRN PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF A POTENT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS MOST SITES
OVER THE PERIOD FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY POSITIONED ACROSS ARKANSAS ALONG WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO
LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY TO AS LOW AS IFR AND LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY.
FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL REMAIN DISMAL IN MVFR, IFR, AND LIFR FOR
PATCHY, DENSE FOG AND LOWERED CIGS ACROSS MOST TERMINALS ACROSS THE
STATE. THE SOUTHEASTERN SITES OF KPBF AND KLLQ WILL HAVE CIGS THAT
RAISE TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, MOST
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN IFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LOWERED CIGS. THE SOUTHEASTERN SITES OF KPBF
AND KLLQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 61 59 75 53 / 100 90 50 10
CAMDEN AR 78 63 76 53 / 50 80 30 10
HARRISON AR 62 58 73 49 / 90 100 30 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 69 62 74 52 / 90 90 30 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 69 63 75 56 / 90 90 30 10
MONTICELLO AR 78 65 79 59 / 50 50 30 20
MOUNT IDA AR 69 62 75 50 / 90 100 30 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 61 58 74 50 / 90 100 40 10
NEWPORT AR 59 59 75 56 / 90 90 50 20
PINE BLUFF AR 74 63 77 55 / 80 80 30 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 69 62 77 51 / 100 100 30 10
SEARCY AR 61 59 76 53 / 100 90 40 20
STUTTGART AR 70 61 76 57 / 90 80 30 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ARZ006>008-014>017-
024-025-032>034-044>047.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...74
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