923
FXUS64 KLZK 210857
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
257 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING
- ADDITIONAL ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING; HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ACROSS
ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADARS DEPICTED WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN
ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
FRIDAY MORNING. OVER SRN AR, THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THE RADAR HAS SHOWN JUST
THAT WITH A MIXED MODE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTERMIXED WITH
STRATIFORM RAIN. OVERNIGHT, A COUPLE OF STORMS OVER SRN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
TODAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ADVANCE E ACROSS THE STATE BENEATH A PASSING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MIDDAY, HOWEVER NEW
PRECIPITATION COULD DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING.
A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BEFORE GETTING CAUGHT
UP IN THE MEAN FLOW. COMPACT AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL PRECEDE THE
LARGER PARENT TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING NICE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
AR FOR A SHORT TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ONCE AGAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE STATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING PARENT TROUGH.
QPF TOTALS COULD AMOUNT TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
STATE, HOWEVER SPEED OF SYSTEM AND LOCATION OF UPSCALE GROWTH WILL
ULTIMATELY IMPACT HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS OBSERVED, AND WHERE,
THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST THU NOV 20 2025
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT DEGRADATION OF FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS MOST SITES
OVER THE PERIOD FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A STATIONARY BOUNDARY POSITIONED ACROSS ARKANSAS ALONG WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LEAD TO
LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY TO AS LOW AS IFR AND LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORY.
FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL REMAIN DISMAL IN MVFR, IFR, AND LIFR FOR
PATCHY, DENSE FOG AND LOWERED CIGS ACROSS MOST TERMINALS ACROSS THE
STATE. THE SOUTHEASTERN SITES OF KPBF AND KLLQ WILL HAVE CIGS THAT
RAISE TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, MOST
TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IN IFR AND MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY OVER THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LOWERED CIGS. THE SOUTHEASTERN SITES OF KPBF
AND KLLQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 74 53 65 44 / 50 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 76 53 71 47 / 30 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 72 49 60 44 / 30 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 52 68 47 / 30 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 74 56 68 47 / 30 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 79 59 73 50 / 30 20 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 75 50 68 47 / 30 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 73 50 62 42 / 40 10 10 0
NEWPORT AR 74 56 64 45 / 50 20 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 76 55 70 47 / 30 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 76 51 68 46 / 30 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 75 53 66 44 / 40 20 0 0
STUTTGART AR 75 57 68 47 / 30 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ006>008-
014>017-024-025-032>034-044>047.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...74
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