255
FXUS64 KLZK 211759
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1159 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING
- ADDITIONAL ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING; HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ACROSS
ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
REGIONAL WSR-88D RADARS DEPICTED WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN
ONGOING ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE EARLY THIS
FRIDAY MORNING. OVER SRN AR, THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THE RADAR HAS SHOWN JUST
THAT WITH A MIXED MODE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTERMIXED WITH
STRATIFORM RAIN. OVERNIGHT, A COUPLE OF STORMS OVER SRN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
TODAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ADVANCE E ACROSS THE STATE BENEATH A PASSING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN BY MIDDAY, HOWEVER NEW
PRECIPITATION COULD DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING.
A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BEFORE GETTING CAUGHT
UP IN THE MEAN FLOW. COMPACT AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL PRECEDE THE
LARGER PARENT TROUGH WHICH WILL BRING NICE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
AR FOR A SHORT TIME. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ONCE AGAIN
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
ACROSS THE STATE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING PARENT TROUGH.
QPF TOTALS COULD AMOUNT TO SEVERAL INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE
STATE, HOWEVER SPEED OF SYSTEM AND LOCATION OF UPSCALE GROWTH WILL
ULTIMATELY IMPACT HOW MUCH RAINFALL IS OBSERVED, AND WHERE,
THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS. NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED BY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA WITH VFR CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY RETURNING. IN
THE INTERIM, MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR A RETURN TO MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN TO THE N/NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM BUT REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 76 52 65 44 / 40 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 76 53 69 47 / 40 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 72 49 60 43 / 10 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 74 51 66 48 / 20 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 76 54 66 48 / 40 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 79 58 72 50 / 30 20 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 75 49 66 46 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 74 50 61 43 / 20 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 74 54 65 45 / 40 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 77 55 69 48 / 50 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 76 50 67 46 / 20 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 76 52 66 45 / 30 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 76 56 68 48 / 40 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...56
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