539
FXUS64 KLZK 222314 AAA
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
514 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL, AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS MORNING
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY; POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
- SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
DENSE FOG HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE I-30/I-57
CORRIDORS FROM SW AR, THROUGH MOST OF CNTRL AR, INTO NE AR. THIS
BATCH OF DENSE FOG ALSO COVERED MUCH OF I-530 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
E OF THERE. ASOS/AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
SHOWED PERSISTENT VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1 MILE TO LESS THAN 1/4 OF
A MILE. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. IN PLACE OF THE FOG, LOW STRATUS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A NRLY DIRECTION AT AROUND 10-15 MPH.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S N, TO MID/UPPER 60S CNTRL, TO LOWER 70S OVER
SRN AR.
AMPLIFIED COMPACT UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE TOWARDS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER CONDS
TO THE STATE BRIEFLY.
BY MONDAY, A POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS INTO THE
MS VALLEY REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD
SPUR IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT AND FROM
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT PASSING OVER THE REGION.
POP CHANCES WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE OVER WRN AR ON MONDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE EWRD MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AN OPEN WARM SECTOR WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NWRD INTO THE REGION
TOWARDS THE NEWLY DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS.
THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINING IS HOW FAR N DOES THE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ADVECT BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES FROM THE W. THIS WILL ANSWER THE
QUESTION IF STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS ANY
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FOR NOW IF STORMS WERE TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, PORTIONS OF SRN AR WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE.
QPF DETERMINISTIC AMOUNTS ARE SETTLING BETWEEN THE 1-3" RANGE
WITH GREATEST TOTALS FAVORED OVER W AND SW AR. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS
LIKELY SINCE THIS UPPER SYSTEM SEEMS PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS. PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLES
DEPICT 50-90% OF >1" FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY TOTAL RAINFALL, AND
40-60% OF >2" FOR SW 2/3RDS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD
OF TIME. VERY LIMITED AREA OF 10-20% PROBS OF >3" OVER W AR INTO
WRN AR RIVER VALLEY. IF THIS SITUATION WERE TO PLAY OUT, THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO PORTIONS OF WRN
AR.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BENEATH NW FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL TRANSITION FROM NEAR
RECORD WARMTH OF LATE, TO BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE NRLY AND NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD
OF TIME. LOW TEMPS COULD BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE STATE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. HIGH TEMPS
DURING THIS PERIOD COULD STRUGGLE TO GET OF THE 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS MANY AREA TERMINALS. THESE LOW CIGS WILL PROVIDE MVFR AND
LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED BETWEEN 23/18Z AND THE END OF THE PERIOD. SFC WINDS WILL
REMAIN VARIABLE ACROSS THE STATE AT LESS THAN 9 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 45 66 45 62 / 0 0 10 80
CAMDEN AR 48 67 48 69 / 0 0 20 70
HARRISON AR 43 65 46 58 / 0 0 30 90
HOT SPRINGS AR 48 67 48 64 / 0 0 40 90
LITTLE ROCK AR 49 66 50 64 / 0 0 10 80
MONTICELLO AR 51 69 50 72 / 0 0 0 60
MOUNT IDA AR 46 67 48 64 / 0 0 50 90
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 43 64 45 57 / 0 0 20 90
NEWPORT AR 46 64 47 62 / 0 0 10 80
PINE BLUFF AR 49 66 48 69 / 0 0 10 70
RUSSELLVILLE AR 46 68 49 61 / 0 0 40 90
SEARCY AR 46 66 46 64 / 0 0 10 80
STUTTGART AR 49 66 49 67 / 10 0 10 70
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...67
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