206
FXUS64 KLZK 230535
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1135 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS PORTIONS
SOUTHWEST, CENTRAL, AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS MORNING
- HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY; POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
- SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN AND DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
DENSE FOG HAD DEVELOPED ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE I-30/I-57
CORRIDORS FROM SW AR, THROUGH MOST OF CNTRL AR, INTO NE AR. THIS
BATCH OF DENSE FOG ALSO COVERED MUCH OF I-530 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
E OF THERE. ASOS/AWOS SITES ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
SHOWED PERSISTENT VISIBILITIES BETWEEN 1 MILE TO LESS THAN 1/4 OF
A MILE. CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING AS A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. IN PLACE OF THE FOG, LOW STRATUS
SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE NRN HALF OF THE STATE IN WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND WINDS WILL SWITCH TO A NRLY DIRECTION AT AROUND 10-15 MPH.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S N, TO MID/UPPER 60S CNTRL, TO LOWER 70S OVER
SRN AR.
AMPLIFIED COMPACT UPPER RIDGING WILL SLIDE TOWARDS THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE N. THIS WILL BRING DRY AND COOLER CONDS
TO THE STATE BRIEFLY.
BY MONDAY, A POTENT UPPER TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW WILL EJECT INTO THE
CNTRL/NRN PLAINS FROM THE ROCKIES. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH AXIS INTO THE
MS VALLEY REGION. AT THE SAME TIME, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD
SPUR IN LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT AND FROM
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT PASSING OVER THE REGION.
POP CHANCES WILL MARKEDLY INCREASE OVER WRN AR ON MONDAY. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE EWRD MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AN OPEN WARM SECTOR WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NWRD INTO THE REGION
TOWARDS THE NEWLY DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW OVER THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS.
THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINING IS HOW FAR N DOES THE UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ADVECT BEFORE PRECIP ARRIVES FROM THE W. THIS WILL ANSWER THE
QUESTION IF STORMS WILL BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS ANY
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FOR NOW IF STORMS WERE TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, PORTIONS OF SRN AR WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE.
QPF DETERMINISTIC AMOUNTS ARE SETTLING BETWEEN THE 1-3" RANGE
WITH GREATEST TOTALS FAVORED OVER W AND SW AR. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS
LIKELY SINCE THIS UPPER SYSTEM SEEMS PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS. PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLES
DEPICT 50-90% OF >1" FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY TOTAL RAINFALL, AND
40-60% OF >2" FOR SW 2/3RDS OF THE STATE THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD
OF TIME. VERY LIMITED AREA OF 10-20% PROBS OF >3" OVER W AR INTO
WRN AR RIVER VALLEY. IF THIS SITUATION WERE TO PLAY OUT, THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO PORTIONS OF WRN
AR.
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY BENEATH NW FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS WILL TRANSITION FROM NEAR
RECORD WARMTH OF LATE, TO BELOW AVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE NRLY AND NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD
OF TIME. LOW TEMPS COULD BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE STATE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS. HIGH TEMPS
DURING THIS PERIOD COULD STRUGGLE TO GET OF THE 50S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2025
IFR/MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING OVER MOST
OF AR. LOW CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE BY MIDDAY.
WINDS ON SUN WILL BE E/SE BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 63 45 64 45 / 20 0 0 10
CAMDEN AR 69 48 66 48 / 0 0 0 30
HARRISON AR 58 45 63 46 / 10 0 0 30
HOT SPRINGS AR 65 49 65 48 / 0 0 0 50
LITTLE ROCK AR 66 50 64 49 / 0 0 0 20
MONTICELLO AR 72 51 67 51 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 64 46 66 49 / 0 0 0 60
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 58 44 63 45 / 20 0 0 20
NEWPORT AR 62 47 63 48 / 10 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 69 49 65 49 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 65 46 67 49 / 0 0 0 40
SEARCY AR 66 46 65 46 / 10 0 0 10
STUTTGART AR 67 49 64 49 / 10 0 0 10
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...70
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70
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