505
FXUS64 KLZK 022357
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
557 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
- RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH WITH AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH AT THE MOST EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 70S TODAY
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS
WARM AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
OVERALL THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THIS MORNING WITH
EXPANSIVE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUGHT UP IN THE
PREVAILING FLOW WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE
FORECAST AREA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
TOWARDS SUNRISE OVER PRIMARILY THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE TO TAP ONTO
AS IT PUSHES EAST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF OVER THE E AND NE PARTS OF
THE STATE. SOME MAY BE LUCKY ENOUGH TO PICK UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF RAIN BUT EVEN THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY,
CLEARING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW THIS DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND CONTINUING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THESE NUMBERS, WHILE MUCH COOLER THAN
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE, ARE ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY JANUARY.
COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S RETURN FOR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN MID WEEK AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A LARGE VARIANCE IN CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SKC IN THE
NORTHWEST, MVFR LINGERING IN THE SOUTHWEST, AND POCKETS OF IFR
ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS. AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES, WITH IFR CEILINGS
FAVORED DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MVFR OR BETTER, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME TEMPORARY DIPS INTO
IFR. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH CEILINGS BACK TO VFR BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 36 50 30 49 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 45 58 36 56 / 10 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 37 50 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 44 58 36 53 / 10 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 41 53 34 50 / 10 10 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 47 55 37 55 / 10 10 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 45 59 36 55 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 34 50 29 49 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 37 49 30 47 / 20 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 44 53 35 52 / 10 10 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 43 58 34 53 / 10 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 37 52 30 49 / 10 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 41 50 33 49 / 10 10 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...77
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