205
FXUS64 KLZK 030513
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1113 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- A WEAK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY BRINGING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCES OF
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE EAST AND NORTHEAST.
- RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE VERY HIGH WITH AROUND A QUARTER
OF AN INCH AT THE MOST EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 70S TODAY
WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S THIS WEEKEND. TEMPS
WARM AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
OVERALL THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED THIS MORNING WITH
EXPANSIVE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND SUBSEQUENT DOWNSTREAM
TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. SHORTWAVE TROUGH CAUGHT UP IN THE
PREVAILING FLOW WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BACK TO THE
FORECAST AREA.
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS MAINLY MID TO HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AT THIS TIME. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES ANYWHERE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE INCREASING THROUGH THE
REMINDER OF THE NIGHT WITH GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
TOWARDS SUNRISE OVER PRIMARILY THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE TO TAP ONTO
AS IT PUSHES EAST WITH THE HIGHEST QPF OVER THE E AND NE PARTS OF
THE STATE. SOME MAY BE LUCKY ENOUGH TO PICK UP A QUARTER OF AN INCH
OF RAIN BUT EVEN THIS AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT ON THE EXPANDING DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE STATE.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY,
CLEARING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MID EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL
FOLLOW THIS DISTURBANCE RESULTING IN A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION AND CONTINUING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE THIS WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. THESE NUMBERS, WHILE MUCH COOLER THAN
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE, ARE ACTUALLY VERY CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES FOR EARLY JANUARY.
COOL DOWN WILL BE BRIEF AS BROAD UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S RETURN FOR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN MID WEEK AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
IFR CEILINGS WITH SOME MVFR VISIBILITY WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT TONIGHT INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A THICK STRATUS DECK HAS SET
UP AT FL005-009, THAT LOOKS TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING
BEFORE SLOWLY DISSIPATING FROM ABOVE AND BELOW BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. MODELS MAY BE A LITTLE OPTIMISTIC ON THE CLEARING OUT
TIME, BUT IFR CONDITIONS IN GENERAL SHOULD START TO MOVE TO MVFR
BETWEEN 18-21Z. ALL AREAS LOOK TO CLEAR OUT QUICKLY AFTER 21Z, BUT
WITH THE LOW SUN ANGLE CURRENTLY, IT MAY TAKE ANOTHER OUR OR TWO
BEFORE THE WEATHER SYSTEM SHIFTS WINDS AND CLEARS OUT THE AREA
AROUND 00Z FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 51 36 50 30 / 70 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 69 45 58 36 / 30 10 0 0
HARRISON AR 56 37 50 29 / 40 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 60 44 58 36 / 40 10 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 57 41 53 34 / 70 10 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 67 47 55 37 / 50 10 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 62 45 59 36 / 40 10 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 51 34 50 29 / 40 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 50 37 49 30 / 70 20 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 63 44 53 35 / 60 10 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 58 43 58 34 / 60 10 0 0
SEARCY AR 53 37 52 30 / 70 10 0 0
STUTTGART AR 58 41 50 33 / 70 10 10 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...75
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