272
FXUS64 KLZK 031117
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
517 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- CLOUDY SATURDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY, EXPECT SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
- A WARM UP IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
- COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH ARKANSAS IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS, MAINLY INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE AREA AND
KEEPING A COOLER NE WIND OVER THE STATE. AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES
EAST, RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE COOLER AIR ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL KEEP THE AREA NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE IN RAPIDLY MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BRING BACK A SPRING-LIKE FEEL WITH
TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A LOW WILL
FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 20
MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH/FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY, WITH ONLY WIND AS THE
MAIN IMPACT. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY, BUT WILL REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT
STARTS TO SETUP THURSDAY.
A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER KS/MO.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE WITH A LLJ FORMING
UP OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
STATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I30. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE NBM MEAN SHOWING 0.25-0.5" OF RAINFALL,
BUT THE 90TH PERCENTILES SHOWING 1.5-1.75". THE LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CAPE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF ENOUGH HEATING
CAN FORM AND THE FRONT COMES THROUGH A LITTLE LATER THAN CURRENT
RUNS, THEN THESE HIGHER TOTALS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SHEAR, SO CAPE WILL BE THE FACTOR TO WATCH AS WE MOVE
LATER INTO THE WEEK. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS COLD FRONT FRIDAY, BUT MORE NOTICEABLE ON SATURDAY AS HIGHS
SHIFT BACK TO MORE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 514 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITY WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING. IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THIS THICK STRATUS
DECK TO START TO RAISE UP AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERTIME. WITH THE
LOWER SUN ANGLE IT COULD TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TO GET ABOVE
FL010, BUT ONCE THINGS BREAK UP AND HEATING CONTINUES MOST AREAS
WILL GO TO MVFR AND EVEN VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE AREA THAT
HAS THE BEST CHANCE STAYING AT MVFR OR LOWER WILL BE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN AR, INCLUDING KHOT AND KADF. ALL CEILINGS WILL
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SHALLOW FOG IN AREAS
THAT CLEAR OUT EARLIER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 49 29 48 34 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 56 34 55 36 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 49 30 52 37 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 57 34 52 37 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 52 32 50 36 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 53 35 54 39 / 10 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 58 35 55 38 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 48 28 49 34 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 48 29 47 34 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 52 32 52 37 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 56 33 52 36 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 51 28 49 32 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 50 31 49 36 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARHAM
AVIATION...BARHAM
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