285
FXUS64 KLZK 031702
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1102 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- CLOUDY SATURDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY, EXPECT SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
- A WARM UP IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
- COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH ARKANSAS IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS, MAINLY INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE AREA AND
KEEPING A COOLER NE WIND OVER THE STATE. AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES
EAST, RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE COOLER AIR ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL KEEP THE AREA NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE IN RAPIDLY MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BRING BACK A SPRING-LIKE FEEL WITH
TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A LOW WILL
FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 20
MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH/FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY, WITH ONLY WIND AS THE
MAIN IMPACT. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY, BUT WILL REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT
STARTS TO SETUP THURSDAY.
A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER KS/MO.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE WITH A LLJ FORMING
UP OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
STATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I30. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE NBM MEAN SHOWING 0.25-0.5" OF RAINFALL,
BUT THE 90TH PERCENTILES SHOWING 1.5-1.75". THE LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CAPE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF ENOUGH HEATING
CAN FORM AND THE FRONT COMES THROUGH A LITTLE LATER THAN CURRENT
RUNS, THEN THESE HIGHER TOTALS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SHEAR, SO CAPE WILL BE THE FACTOR TO WATCH AS WE MOVE
LATER INTO THE WEEK. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS COLD FRONT FRIDAY, BUT MORE NOTICEABLE ON SATURDAY AS HIGHS
SHIFT BACK TO MORE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
EXPECT LOWERED CIGS AND VSBY TO BEGIN THE FORECAST PERIOD AT MVFR
AND IFR FLIGHT CATEGORY AND LAST FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS ACROSS ALL
SITES BEFORE CIGS AND VSBY IMPROVE TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS
MOST TERMINALS BY SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE VSBY IS EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL TERMINALS OF KHRO, KHOT, KADF, AND KLIT BEFORE VSBY WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR LATER SUNDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 29 48 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 34 55 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 30 52 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 34 52 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 32 50 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 35 54 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 35 55 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 28 49 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 29 47 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 32 52 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 33 52 36 66 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 28 49 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 31 49 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...74
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page