547
FXUS64 KLZK 040512
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1112 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- CLOUDY SATURDAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY, EXPECT SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND
- A WARM UP IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
- COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, LEADING TO COOLER
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH ARKANSAS IN THE NEXT
24 HOURS, MAINLY INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE AREA AND
KEEPING A COOLER NE WIND OVER THE STATE. AS THIS TROUGH PUSHES
EAST, RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY. THE COOLER AIR ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT/TROUGH WILL KEEP THE AREA NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE IN RAPIDLY MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BRING BACK A SPRING-LIKE FEEL WITH
TEMPERATURES JUMPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A LOW WILL
FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING
STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AREA WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 20
MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TROUGH/FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY, WITH ONLY WIND AS THE
MAIN IMPACT. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP A FEW DEGREES WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THIS BOUNDARY, BUT WILL REBOUND AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT
STARTS TO SETUP THURSDAY.
A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, RESULTING IN A SURFACE LOW FORMING OVER KS/MO.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL TAP INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE WITH A LLJ FORMING
UP OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
STATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I30. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL BE AVAILABLE WITH THE NBM MEAN SHOWING 0.25-0.5" OF RAINFALL,
BUT THE 90TH PERCENTILES SHOWING 1.5-1.75". THE LIMITING FACTOR
WILL BE CAPE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF ENOUGH HEATING
CAN FORM AND THE FRONT COMES THROUGH A LITTLE LATER THAN CURRENT
RUNS, THEN THESE HIGHER TOTALS MAY BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SHEAR, SO CAPE WILL BE THE FACTOR TO WATCH AS WE MOVE
LATER INTO THE WEEK. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS COLD FRONT FRIDAY, BUT MORE NOTICEABLE ON SATURDAY AS HIGHS
SHIFT BACK TO MORE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1109 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A MVFR CLOUD DECK OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS. A LOW LEVEL FEATURE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING NORTH
TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA, DISSIPATING THE CLOUD DECK WITH THE
DRIER AND COOLER AIR. MODELS HAVE A DECENT GRASP ON THIS
DISSIPATION AND HAVE MOST THE TAF SITES TO VFR BY MID MORNING. FOG
MAY FORM IN NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL ARKANSAS WITH
THE CLEARING AND DROP IN TEMPERATURES. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD MITIGATE IFR FOG, BUT THE TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND
OVERNIGHT COOLING WILL BE KEY TO THIS FORMATION. ONLY MVFR
VISIBILITY HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THESE ARES FOR NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 48 29 49 37 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 55 34 55 38 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 44 30 53 39 / 10 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 54 34 53 39 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 49 32 51 38 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 50 36 56 41 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 51 35 55 40 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 43 28 50 35 / 10 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 45 28 48 35 / 10 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 49 32 53 39 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 50 33 53 37 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 48 28 50 34 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 46 31 50 38 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...75
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