437
FXUS64 KLZK 041110
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
510 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR SUNDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
JANUARY
- A WARM UP IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S), TUESDAY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY
- STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
- COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH, CLEARING OUT THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JANUARY, BUT THINGS WILL CHANGE DRASTICALLY STARTING MONDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY,
WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SW AND BRING STRONG WAA OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB AROUND 15
DEGREES FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH MOST THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD AND DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVER THE OZARKS AND
OUACHITA TERRAIN OF 20-25 MPH GUSTS. VALLEYS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE
10-15 MPH RANGE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE A WEAK WIND SHIFT,
BUT WILL HELP A STRONG WARMING TO OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
OVER SOUTHERN AR. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY NORTH OF
I30/I40 WITH THAT MINOR CAA FROM THE FRONT. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A NICE WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THURSDAY THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS A
CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN OPEN
WAVE. THIS TROUGHING OUT WEST WILL SETUP A W-E BOUNDARY OVER
ARKANSAS WITH MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GULF IN THE SOUTH. THE
WAVE WILL KICK OFF CYCLOGENESIS OVER TX WITH THE WARM FRONT FORMING
OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN COMPLETELY CONSISTENT
WITH WHERE THIS LOW WILL FORM WHICH COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON THE
OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE STATE. THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WILL
ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON RAINFALL TOTALS. NBM MEAN IS SHOWING TWO
SCENARIOS WITH A LIGHTER RAINFALL OCCURRING ON THURSDAY OF 0.25-
0.75", OR A HIGHER RAINFALL TOTAL WITH A SLOWER MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OF 1.5-1.75" OF RAINFALL. LATEST GFS HAS A MUCH
SLOWER AND DYNAMIC SYSTEM, SO THIS WILL BE WORTH WATCHING AS WE MOVE
LATER INTO THE WEEK AS THE STATE COULD USE A GOOD WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. EXPECT A STRONG WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE IN GUSTS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH STRONG CAA MOVING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. THIS WILL SET UP A COOLER WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS ARE SEEING SOME
SHALLOW FOG IN THE VALLEYS AS THE CEILINGS HAVE CLEARED OUT. THERE
IS ONLY ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS OF COOLING EXPECTED, SO WIDESPREAD
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. KBPK HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING IFR
TO LIFR FOG AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST, BRINGING IN
SOME FOG FROM THE RIVER VALLEYS. THIS FOG LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT BY
15-16Z. THE MVFR CEILINGS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH ARKANSAS WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EAST TO WEST, CLEARING OUT ALL TAF SITES BY
16Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 49 38 64 50 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 56 39 68 53 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 54 39 67 51 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 54 40 66 52 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 51 39 66 51 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 56 43 67 55 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNT IDA AR 55 40 68 53 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 50 36 66 49 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 48 35 63 50 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 53 40 67 54 / 0 0 0 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 54 38 68 50 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 50 35 65 48 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 51 40 65 53 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARHAM
AVIATION...BARHAM
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