131
FXUS64 KLZK 050534
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1134 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- CLOUDS CLEAR OUT FOR SUNDAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY
JANUARY
- A WARM UP IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES 15-20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S), TUESDAY BEING
THE WARMEST DAY
- STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING RAIN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
- COOLER TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH, CLEARING OUT THE CLOUD COVERAGE AND LEAVING A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JANUARY, BUT THINGS WILL CHANGE DRASTICALLY STARTING MONDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY,
WHICH WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE SW AND BRING STRONG WAA OVER THE AREA
AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB AROUND 15
DEGREES FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH MOST THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S. WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD AND DURING FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVER THE OZARKS AND
OUACHITA TERRAIN OF 20-25 MPH GUSTS. VALLEYS WILL SEE WINDS IN THE
10-15 MPH RANGE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE A WEAK WIND SHIFT,
BUT WILL HELP A STRONG WARMING TO OCCUR IN THE WARM SECTOR OVER THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
OVER SOUTHERN AR. TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY NORTH OF
I30/I40 WITH THAT MINOR CAA FROM THE FRONT. WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A NICE WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THURSDAY THE PATTERN STARTS TO SHIFT TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AS A
CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP AND MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN OPEN
WAVE. THIS TROUGHING OUT WEST WILL SETUP A W-E BOUNDARY OVER
ARKANSAS WITH MOISTURE PUSHING IN FROM THE GULF IN THE SOUTH. THE
WAVE WILL KICK OFF CYCLOGENESIS OVER TX WITH THE WARM FRONT FORMING
OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS. MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN COMPLETELY CONSISTENT
WITH WHERE THIS LOW WILL FORM WHICH COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON THE
OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE STATE. THE STRENGTH OF THE LLJ WILL
ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON RAINFALL TOTALS. NBM MEAN IS SHOWING TWO
SCENARIOS WITH A LIGHTER RAINFALL OCCURRING ON THURSDAY OF 0.25-
0.75", OR A HIGHER RAINFALL TOTAL WITH A SLOWER MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY OF 1.5-1.75" OF RAINFALL. LATEST GFS HAS A MUCH
SLOWER AND DYNAMIC SYSTEM, SO THIS WILL BE WORTH WATCHING AS WE MOVE
LATER INTO THE WEEK AS THE STATE COULD USE A GOOD WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. EXPECT A STRONG WIND SHIFT AND INCREASE IN GUSTS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT WITH STRONG CAA MOVING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. THIS WILL SET UP A COOLER WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KADF AS
SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS AOB 10 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 38 64 51 72 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 39 68 52 73 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 39 66 51 70 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 40 66 52 72 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 39 65 52 71 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 42 66 54 74 / 0 0 0 10
MOUNT IDA AR 41 67 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 35 66 49 69 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 35 62 50 70 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 40 65 52 72 / 0 0 0 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 39 67 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 35 64 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 39 64 52 70 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...55
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