109
FXUS64 KLZK 050719
AFDLZK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
119 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 118 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MILD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAY AND
AVERAGE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SOME STRONGER
STORMS CAN NOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS BEHIND THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT OVER NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH BROAD
RIDGING SITTING PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF US. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
SHOWING MAINLY HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS
CURRENTLY IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
UPPER TROUGHING, CURRENTLY ALONG THE WA/OR COAST, IS EXPECTED TO
DROP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH AN UPPER LOW EVENTUALLY
BEING CARVED OUT IN ITS BASE. AS THIS OCCURS, A WEAKER TROUGH WILL
BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S STATEWIDE TODAY.
MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHICH IN TURN WILL DRAG A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE ON
TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL COME UP A BIT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS ACROSS THE OZARKS/OUACHITAS BUT NO HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES ON TUESDAY WITH 70 DEGREES PLUS READINGS FORECAST. THE ONLY
INDICATION OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NW
WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS BROAD
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA.
AFOREMENTIONED WEST COAST UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND LIFTS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME TYPE OF
BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE WITH A DEFINITE INCREASE IN GULF MOISTURE
WITH DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE 50S/60S. BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES AND MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE STILL A BIT SKETCHY BUT ANYTHING WOULD BE
WELCOMED AT THIS POINT AND EVEN SOME SEVERE WEATHER CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT COMPLETELY OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE FRIDAY AS A
STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ANOTHER SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER
AIR RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY ACROSS ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KADF AS
SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WINDS AOB 10 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
BATESVILLE AR 64 51 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN AR 68 52 73 44 / 0 0 0 0
HARRISON AR 66 51 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 66 52 72 44 / 0 0 0 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 65 52 71 44 / 0 0 0 0
MONTICELLO AR 66 54 74 51 / 0 0 10 0
MOUNT IDA AR 67 53 74 43 / 0 0 0 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 66 49 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
NEWPORT AR 62 50 70 43 / 0 0 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 65 52 72 46 / 0 0 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 67 49 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
SEARCY AR 64 48 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
STUTTGART AR 64 52 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....56
AVIATION...56
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